What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Analytics

Glossary

Brazilian political terms

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

Institutional concepts, parties, expressions, and terms coined during the 2026 electoral cycle.

1º turnoElectoral conceptFirst seen: 2026-04-22: First round of Brazil's presidential election. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two go to a runoff (2º turno) three weeks later.
2º turnoElectoral conceptFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Runoff round of Brazil's presidential election. Held only between the two top candidates from the first round when no one won an absolute majority.
AtlasIntelPolling instituteFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Brazilian polling institute using digital (online) methodology, known for large sample sizes (n=5,000) and its Bloomberg partnership for international polling.
AvanteFirst seen: 2026-04-05: Centrist party created in 2017 from the former PTdoB. Affiliated writer Augusto Cury in April 2026 as a pre-candidate for the Presidency. Without significant parliamentary weight, it typically forms coalitions.
Banco MasterScandalFirst seen: 2026-04-23: Brazilian bank owned by businessman Daniel Vorcaro, under investigation for billion-real fraud allegations beginning in 2026. Source of the Banco Master Parliamentary Inquiry (stalled at the STF in April 2026) and the BolsoMaster term.
BolsoMasterNeologismFirst seen: 2026-04-26: Term coined on social media and by political opponents in late April 2026 to describe alleged connections between senator Flávio Bolsonaro and the Banco Master fraud case. The PL (Flávio's party) publicly denied involvement.
DatafolhaPolling instituteFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Polling institute of the Folha de S.Paulo media group, founded in 1983. One of Brazil's most established institutes, with in-person methodology and historical coverage of national elections.
Empate técnicoElectoral conceptFirst seen: 2026-04-25: Statistical tie. Difference between candidates is smaller than or equal to the poll's margin of error; statistically, it cannot be claimed that one leads the other.
Farra do INSSScandalFirst seen: 2026-04-25: Scandal involving unauthorized deductions from retiree and pensioner benefits at INSS (Brazil's National Social Security Institute), uncovered in 2025. Multiple entities under investigation for diverting funds.
INSSInstitutionFirst seen: 2026-05-04: Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social (Brazilian Social Security Institute). Federal agency responsible for Brazilian social security (retirement, pensions, benefits). In 2025-2026 became the center of the INSS scandal — irregular charges by associations on retiree benefits, under joint congressional inquiry (CPMI).
Lideranças envelhecidasNeologismFirst seen: 2026-04-26: Phrase used by Tarcísio de Freitas on April 26, 2026, referring to Lula (80) and Jair Bolsonaro (71). Signaled the strategic shift that culminated in Tarcísio's public endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro as candidate on April 27.
MDBFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (Brazilian Democratic Movement). Traditional centrist party, with strong regional presence especially in Goiás (Daniel Vilela), Alagoas, and Maranhão. Historically held the vice presidency (Sarney, Michel Temer). Frequent member of the centrão coalition.
Nexus/BTG PactualPolling instituteFirst seen: 2026-04-27: National poll conducted by Nexus in partnership with BTG Pactual, an investment bank. Debuted in April 2026 as a new source of national presidential polls.
NovoPolitical partyFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Partido Novo (New Party). Liberal right. Founded in 2011, advocates for minimal state, privatizations, and strict fiscal management. Party of Romeu Zema.
Paraná PesquisasPolling instituteFirst seen: 2026-04-23: Polling institute founded in 2010, headquartered in Curitiba. Known for regional and state-level polls with growing national reach.
PECInstitutionFirst seen: 2026-04-23: Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (Constitutional Amendment Proposal). Formal mechanism to amend Brazil's Constitution; requires 3/5 approval in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate in two rounds.
PFInstitutionFirst seen: 2026-05-04: Polícia Federal (Brazilian Federal Police). Federal judicial police, linked to the Ministry of Justice. Investigates federal crimes (corruption, money laundering, trafficking, crimes against economic order). Acts on high-profile cases like Banco Master, INSS, and electoral investigations.
PLPolitical partyFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Partido Liberal (Liberal Party). Right-wing. Current party of Jair Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro. Largest caucus in the Chamber of Deputies since 2022.
PolymarketPrediction marketFirst seen: 2026-04-22: World's largest prediction market. Platform where participants bet real money (USDC) on political, sports, and economic events. Odds function as the implicit probability of each scenario. Blocked in Brazil since April 24, 2026, but remains accessible internationally.
PSBFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Partido Socialista Brasileiro (Brazilian Socialist Party). Center-left. Strong in Pernambuco (Arraes/Campos family) and Minas Gerais. Historical PT ally in federal coalitions; in 2026, current vice-president Geraldo Alckmin is affiliated.
PSDPolitical partyFirst seen: 2026-04-23: Partido Social Democrático (Social Democratic Party). Center. Founded in 2011 by Gilberto Kassab. Currently part of the Lula governing coalition with several ministries, but maintains public criticism. Party of Ronaldo Caiado.
PTPolitical partyFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers' Party). Center-left. Founded in 1980 by trade unionists and intellectuals. Party of President Lula (3 terms: 2003-2010 and 2023-).
QuaestPolling instituteFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Brazilian polling institute founded by Felipe Nunes in 2018. Known for its partnership with Genial Investimentos (Genial/Quaest) in nationally covered polls.
RepublicanosFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Conservative right party, historically linked to the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God. Tarcísio de Freitas (governor of SP) is affiliated. Important in the evangelical right coalition; in 2026 emerges in the top 10 for the Senate race.
STFInstitutionFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Supremo Tribunal Federal (Brazilian Supreme Court). Brazil's highest court, with 11 justices appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. Rules on the constitutionality of laws and tries officials with privileged forum.
TSEInstitutionFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (Brazilian Supreme Electoral Court). The highest body of Brazil's electoral justice system; organizes elections and registers electoral polls. Every poll published in the press must be pre-registered with the TSE.
União BrasilFirst seen: 2026-04-22: Center-right party created in 2022 from the merger of DEM with PSL (Bolsonaro's original party). Part of the centrão coalition. Strong in Roraima, Amazonas (Roberto Cidade, Amazonas governor 2026), and Goiás. One of the largest party blocks in the Chamber of Deputies.

About this glossary: this glossary lists Brazilian terms without direct EN/ES translation. Rather than inventing equivalents, AFOS Daily keeps the original Portuguese term and links here for context in all three languages. Standard academic practice (Stanford, Harvard Brazil studies).