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AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

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What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

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AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 3, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

Polymarket × Polls × News — synthesis generated based on auditable data. Each claim cites its source.

Flávio regains the top of Polymarket (Brazil Presidential Election) with 43.95% (↑1.30pp), while Lula reverses yesterday's recovery to 37.50% (↓1.0pp). Gap widens again to +6.45pp (vs +4.15pp on May 2). Wellington Dias, coordinator of Lula's campaign, claims Flávio "has hit the ceiling" — Polymarket moves in the opposite direction. Flávio seals rapprochement with Silas Malafaia at a church service in Rio (Folha de S.Paulo and Estadão).

1. What the prediction market priced

In the Brazil Presidential Election market, Flávio Bolsonaro closed the day at 43.95% (↑1.30pp from May 2), reversing the drop from the top registered yesterday. Lula fell to 37.50% (↓1.0pp), reversing the recovery made on Monday. The gap between the two widened again to +6.45pp, against +4.15pp in the previous close.

The technical reading is a return to last week's pattern after the oscillation on May 1 and 2: the market oscillated around 42-44% for Flávio and 37-39% for Lula, with the gap varying between 4 and 6.5pp. In the 2nd place market, Flávio maintains 67.5% (↓0.5pp slight) and Lula 19.0% (↓0.5pp slight) — both with small reversals, without structural change.

In the third way, Renan Santos surges to 36% in the 3rd place market (↑2.5pp, from 33.5%), reducing the gap with Romeu Zema, who maintains the lead at 39.5% (↑0.50pp slight). It is the first significant convergence in recent weeks. In the presidential race, Renan remains stable at 5.65% (↑0.05pp) and Zema continues plummeting, closing at 3.75% (↓0.40pp), fourth consecutive day below 5%. Eduardo Leite reversed strongly in 3rd place to 0.85% (↓0.65pp, from 1.5%).

Haddad plummets for the second consecutive day in the presidential race, closing at 2.95% (↓0.70pp, from 3.65%). Camilo Santana remains above him at 3.85% (↓0.10pp slight). Fragmentation on the left worsens: Camilo is 0.90pp ahead of Haddad, against a tie at the beginning of the week.

In the STF impeach, the market reversed to 13.5% (↓0.5pp slight, from 14%). In the Senate, reverse reorganization of yesterday's movement: PL widens massively to 87% (↑7.5pp, from 79.5%), almost certain consolidation; União recovers slightly to 5.5% (↑0.9pp); Novo reverses strongly to 4.5% (↓3.4pp); PSD plummets to 2.15% (↓5.35pp); MDB plummets to 1.25% (↓3.3pp). In 2026 inflation, all 6%+ bands surge for the second consecutive day: 6.00-6.49% to 16.15% (↑6.3pp), 6.50-6.99% to 16.05% (↑4.45pp), 7%+ to 11.4% (↑3.25pp).

2. What the polling institutes registered

Two national polls released today. Nexus 2T (Capital News) registers a technical tie of Lula with Flávio, Zema, and Caiado in all four runoff scenarios — four competitive opponents in the 2º turno. VOX BRASIL SP 2T (Folha do Estado) shows Flávio 50.4% × Lula 38.1% in São Paulo, with Lula losing by more than 12pp in the country's largest electoral college.

Real Time Big Data PA (released May 2, maintained) confirms Lula leading all 1º turno scenarios in Pará. Quaest released a survey in 6 of 10 states where independent governors are preferred by voters.

Next batches (public records on TSE, cross-referenced via AFOS API): May 4 with releases from SETA and PERCENT; May 5 with Real Time Big Data national; May 6 is mega-bomb day with 7 polls scheduled — DATATRENDS (n=4,000), NEOBE (n=1,008), 100 Cidades (n=1,200), Ideia/Canal Meio (n=1,500), VOX BRASIL (n=1,200), Instituto Franca (n=1,067), SETA (n=1,200) — totaling ~10,700 respondents; May 7 with J J COELHO (n=1,203).

3. What the press covered

On the government side, Wellington Dias, coordinator of Lula's campaign, stated that Flávio Bolsonaro "has hit the ceiling of the polls". The statement was reproduced by VEJA and Noticias do Brasil. Polymarket, on the same day, moved in the opposite direction — the gap widened from 4.15pp to 6.45pp in Flávio's favor. Folha de S.Paulo reported that the government campaign will begin calling the president "Lulinha's father", seeking to address the anti-corruption flank; the nucleus of the Bolsonarist campaign, according to the same report, does not confirm articulation to use the issue.

The Estadão report found that government "launches campaign for ending 6x1 shift" amid crisis with Congress, according to Exame. Correio Braziliense and Portal 98 FM Natal registered analyses on a weakened Executive after Messias's rejection by the Senate.

On the opposition side, Flávio sealed a rapprochement with pastor Silas Malafaia at a service at Assembleia de Deus Vitória em Cristo, in Penha (Rio), today. Sources include Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão, Terra Brasil Notícias, Jornal de Brasília, and ND Mais. Gazeta do Povo published an article "Flávio advances and Northeast is no longer guaranteed territory for Lula". O Globo reported that crisis between Planalto and Senate president leaves União-PP federation "closer to supporting Flávio".

On institutional and judicial matters, CNN Brasil published that "link between Gonet and Moraes is an obstacle" in the Master case, according to investigators. Terra published a story about the content of the messages that led to Vorcaro's arrest. Romeu Zema again defended impeachment of STF ministers and full privatization if elected (Estadão and Terra) — consistent line of the pre-candidate since mid-April, according to prior coverage in Estado de Minas (April 4), Tribuna de Minas (April 17), and O Tempo (April 27).

Folha de S.Paulo published an agenda story on AI in electoral campaigns ("Artificial intelligence causes earthquake in 2026 electoral campaigns"). O Globo brought an explainer story "The tsunami of surveys on the 2026 presidential election". Estado de Minas registered Marília's appeal for Pacheco to define candidacy for MG governor.

4. Divergences of the day

Polymarket × Wellington Dias (Lula campaign): The campaign coordinator stated today that Flávio "has hit the ceiling of the polls" (Brasil 247, VEJA). Polymarket priced exactly the opposite movement — Flávio recovered 1.30pp and the gap widened from 4.15pp to 6.45pp. The divergence does not mean that one side is wrong: the coordinator speaks of traditional polls; Polymarket integrates bets with real money. But the mismatch between narrative and pricing is direct.

SP polls × National Polymarket × government narrative: VOX BRASIL shows Flávio 50.4% × Lula 38.1% in SP in the 2º turno (12.3pp difference). National Polymarket shows Flávio as favorite (43.95% × 37.50%). But Nexus 2T registers a technical tie of Lula with Flávio, Zema, and Caiado in all four national scenarios. The three signals — SP poll (strong anti-Lula), national Polymarket (moderate anti-Lula), Nexus 2T (technical tie in all scenarios) — are not contradictory, but show that the reading "everything decided" on one side and "everything open" on the other does not fit.

Senate consolidation × fragmented state-level: PL widens to 87% in the national Senate (almost certain consolidation for the right). But Quaest shows that in 6 of 10 states voters prefer independent governors — an anti-establishment signal that benefits both non-Bolsonarist center-right and Renan/MBL. The window for a third way in the presidential race remains closed (Zema 4th day <5%, Renan 5.65% stable), but the state-level window remains open.

In summary

Polymarket returns to last week's pattern. After oscillation on May 1 and 2, market returns to Flávio 43-44% and Lula 37-39%. Gap at +6.45pp. There is no clear triggering event today — the reading is one of digestion and resumption of the pattern.
Flávio + Silas Malafaia rapprochement firms evangelical base. Confirmed by 5+ independent sources. It is the most relevant new factual event of the day, with potential effect on evangelical voters both in SP (upcoming polls) and in the Northeast (already in movement in coverage).
"Flávio has hit the ceiling" narrative from government faces Polymarket moving in opposite direction. Coordinator of Lula's campaign makes statement; market prices the opposite. The next wave of polls (May 5-7) will test which side is right.