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Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

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Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 14, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket at 09:00 BRT, Lula dips slightly to 42.50% (↓3.00pp in 24h) and Flávio Bolsonaro recovers to 33.35% (↑4.90pp). The gap between the two narrows from +17.05pp Lula on May 13 to +9.15pp Lula on May 14 — Lula maintains the lead but the margin is cut in half in 24 hours. The movement is consistent with market digestion: the Lula spike on May 13 (following the Flávio-Vorcaro audio) begins to recalibrate as the news settles and the PL base resists.

The third way has two relevant movements in opposite directions. Romeu Zema (Novo) dips sharply to 5.85% (↓6.15pp from 12.00%) — the spike on May 13 does not hold. Renan Santos (Missão/MBL) remains stable at 7.15% (↑0.10pp slight). Renan now surpasses Zema in the presidential race for the first time in the series, although both remain nominally tied in the Quaest poll on May 13 at 4% each. Caiado (PSD) rises slightly to 1.35% (↑0.10pp). Haddad yields to 2.45% (↓0.20pp).

In the second place market, Flávio recovers to 66.00% (↑5.00pp from 61.00%) solidifying absolute leadership. But the highlight is Michelle Bolsonaro, who continues rising in the presidential race to 3.40% (↑1.45pp) and surges in second place to 3.60% (↑2.60pp from 1.00%) — the market prices the replacement narrative with growing strength, three days after VEJA reported that Bolsonaristas discuss replacing her with Flávio. Lula in second place rises slightly to 16.00% (↑0.50pp).

The third place market reorganizes significantly. Zema maintains top position at 35.50% (↑0.50pp stable), Renan surges to 34.50% (↑3.00pp) and Caiado dips sharply to 13.00% (↓5.50pp from 18.50%). Renan and Zema are now technically tied for the first time in the race for third place.

The STF minister impeachment market continues collapsing to 4.50% (↓2.00pp from 6.50%) — accumulated drop of 13.50pp in 72 hours. The market prices that investigations via PF/PGR (Operation Compliance Zero against the Master case) replace the impeachment path via politics. In the Senate, PL consolidates 79.50% (↑2.50pp), PSD surges to 3.05% (↑1.00pp from 2.05%) and Republicanos dips sharply to 1.05% (↓4.20pp from 5.25%) — the market abandons Republicanos as a hypothesis for protagonist strength. In 2026 inflation, the high bands (≥6.50%) partially recover to 20.35% (↑3.15pp), with the 7.00%+ interval surging to 10.40% (↑2.20pp).

2. What the polling institutes recorded

May 14 begins with analysis of the Quaest poll published on May 13. G1 interviewed the institute director himself, who detailed "improvement in government approval and tight election between Lula and Flávio". PlatôBR analyzed that Lula government approval rises after defeats in Congress and the meeting with Trump. JOTA reaffirmed that "Lula reassumes numerical advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff". TVT News titled that Lula defeats Flávio in the second round.

Today (May 14) Gerp released a new presidential voting intention poll, according to Gazeta do Povo. The specific numbers from Gerp on May 14 are not available in verified secondary sources at the time of this synthesis — when confirmed, they will be incorporated.

Datafolha publishes national data on May 15 (D+1) with sample n=2.004, coverage Trump+STF+Desenrola+Vorcaro film. It will be the first field data already covering the complete window of the Flávio-Vorcaro audio. State races: Real Time Big Data released a government and Senate poll in Goiás (Gazeta do Povo May 14); Cleitinho says he is awaiting a "spiritual sign" to define candidacy in MG (JOTA May 14); GDF appears with a tangled race in a poll (Correio Braziliense blogs May 14); Teles Júnior confirms pre-candidacy for Senate by PDT in Amapá (G1 May 14).## 3. What the press covered

The central axis of coverage is the Federal Police operation against the Vorcaro family. Henrique Vorcaro, father of Daniel Vorcaro, was arrested by PF in the 6th phase of Operation Compliance Zero, which investigates the Banco Master case. Estadão reported that PF arrests Daniel Vorcaro's father in another action on Banco Master. VEJA covered that PF arrests Daniel Vorcaro's father in new phase of Master operation.

The new phase has two relevant developments reported on May 14. First, O Globo reported that Daniel Vorcaro used his father's account to hide R$ 2.2 billion from Master victims, according to PF. Second, G1 detailed that "'A Turma' and 'Os Meninos' are groups targeted in the new phase of Compliance Zero, accused of intimidating people and invading systems" — analysis expanded by O Globo on how the investigated group operated. O Globo adds: PF members are targets of the operation that arrested Vorcaro's father.

The connection with Flávio Bolsonaro is the political vector. O Globo reported today that the amount Vorcaro gave to Bolsonaro's film was 13 times Master's cash when it was liquidated and that Flávio negotiated with Vorcaro months after Bolsonaro attacked Master, in a move described as "the system acting". BBC analyzed that "Flávio Bolsonaro's connection to Vorcaro opens crisis in Bolsonaro's campaign: a bucket of cold water", and in a separate piece that Flávio admits asking Vorcaro for millions for his father's film. Folha covered that "Flávio Bolsonaro's allies see loss of confidence due to tie with Vorcaro and fear more accusations", and that government supporters celebrate the audio but doubt its effect on voters. VEJA described, in a column by José Casado, that the Master deal sows doubts about Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy, and that Mário Frias, executive producer of "Dark Horse", spoke out about the audio. Estadão noted that the production company and Mário Frias say Vorcaro did not give money for the film — contradicting Flávio Bolsonaro. Estadão also reported that Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed asking for money for his father's film and defended the Master CPI. O Globo noted that Flávio will insist on the Master CPI as a strategy to try to dissociate himself from the scandal. VEJA covered that, after the audio, government supporters call for Master CPI and breaking of confidentiality of Bolsonaro's son.

Reflection in the financial market: Valor reported that "the link between Flávio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro weighs on the domestic market" and that "political risk is back in focus for agents". VEJA explained why Flávio Bolsonaro's connection to Vorcaro affects the Ibovespa. In the institutional dynamic, Folha covered that Alcolumbre and Múcio meet one day after embarrassment at TSE swearing-in. On the political economy of Lula's government, G1 reported that internal research pointing to 70% rejection was decisive for the improvised revocation of the fee on cheap shirts. Lindbergh celebrated Quaest and predicted increase in Flávio's rejection (Brasil 247 and Pleno.News May 14).## 4. Divergences of the day

Market × news (Vorcaro/Flávio): Polymarket shows Flávio recovering 4.90pp in 24 hours (28.45% → 33.35%) on the same day that PF arrests the father of Daniel Vorcaro in the 6th phase of Compliance Zero and O Globo reveals that Vorcaro used his father's account to hide R$ 2.2 billion. The reading is one of market digestion: the spike against Flávio on May 13 (following the audio) recalibrates as the PL base holds firm and the news cycle settles. It is not direct causation from any specific May 14 event — it is technical correction after an unprecedented 24-hour move the previous day.

Zema × press: Polymarket returns Zema from 12.00% to 5.85% (↓6.15pp) — the May 13 spike does not confirm. The May 14 press does not cite Zema among the day's movements; the market prices in that he did not consolidate as the recipient of the migration expected from the Flávio crisis. At the same time, Renan surges into 3rd place at 34.50% (↑3.00pp) without appearing prominently in Quaest May 13 or in today's coverage — the market reads an internal reorganization of the third way that has not yet been mirrored in coverage.

STF impeachment × institutional dynamics: the market for impeachment of an STF minister collapses to 4.50% (↓2.00pp in 24 hours, ↓13.50pp in 72 hours), while today's press highlights PF advancing on three parallel investigative fronts (arrest of Henrique Vorcaro, groups "A Turma" and "Os Meninos", concealment of R$ 2.2 billion via his father's account). The reading is coherent: the market prices in that individual proceedings via PF/common courts replace the impeachment path via politics, especially after Fachin tightened rules for case distribution at the STF (May 12) and Kassio's swearing-in at the TSE was completed.

In summary

The 6th phase of PF's Compliance Zero Operation marks the day: arrest of Henrique Vorcaro, father of Daniel Vorcaro, with revelation that Vorcaro used his father's account to hide R$ 2.2 billion from Master victims, and identification of groups "A Turma" and "Os Meninos" as investigation targets for threats and system invasion. The PF repositions the case as an investigative priority.
Polymarket partially digests yesterday's shock — Lula returns slightly (↓3.00pp), Flávio recovers (↑4.90pp), gap between both narrows from +17.05pp to +9.15pp Lula. The May 13 Zema spike does not confirm (↓6.15pp); Michelle continues rising (↑1.45pp presidential, ↑2.60pp in 2º turno), with the market pricing in the replacement narrative with growing force. STF impeachment continues in collapse (↓2.00pp; 72-hour cumulative ↓13.50pp).
Senate and financial market confirm the repositioning: PL consolidates 79.50% (↑2.50pp) despite Flávio's individual crisis, Republicanos returns colossally (↓4.20pp), PSD surges (↑1.00pp). VEJA explained why the Flávio-Vorcaro connection affects the Ibovespa, with Valor reporting political risk returning to agent focus. Datafolha publishes on May 15 the first field data already encompassing the complete window of the Flávio-Vorcaro audio.—

Consulted sources (May 14, 2026):

Articles with direct links to news

Secondary articles (plain text attribution)

BBC News Brasil — "Flávio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro's connection opens crisis in Bolsonaro campaign: 'Cold water bucket'" (May 14)
BBC News Brasil — "Flávio Bolsonaro admits he asked Vorcaro for millions for father's film: what we know" (May 14)
G1 — "Daniel Vorcaro's father arrested by PF in new phase of Operation Compliance Zero" (May 14)
G1 — "Who are 'A Turma' and 'Os Meninos', groups targeted by new phase of Compliance Zero" (May 14)
G1 — "Banco Master CPI is defended by Flávio and government allies; creation depends on Alcolumbre" (May 14)
G1 — "ANALYSIS: Quaest survey shows improvement in government approval and tight election, says director" (May 14)
G1 — "Blouse tax: internal survey of 70% rejection was decisive for revocation" (May 14)
G1 — "Teles Júnior confirms pre-candidacy for Senate by PDT in Amapá" (May 14)
Folha de S.Paulo — "Flávio Bolsonaro's allies see loss of confidence over Vorcaro link and fear more accusations" (May 14)
Folha de S.Paulo — "Government allies celebrate Flávio Bolsonaro's audio to Vorcaro, but doubt effect on voters" (May 14)
Folha de S.Paulo — "Conversation with Vorcaro runs over Flávio Bolsonaro and shakes right" (May 14)
Folha de S.Paulo — "Alcolumbre and Múcio meet one day after embarrassment at TSE ceremony" (May 14)
Folha de S.Paulo — "PT will charge Master CPI and use networks to associate fraud with Flávio Bolsonaro" (May 14)
Folha de S.Paulo — "Learn who is Henrique Vorcaro, father of Banco Master owner arrested this Thursday" (May 14)
Valor — "Link between Flávio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro weighs on domestic market" (May 14)
Valor — "Morning in the market: political risk returns to agents' focus" (May 14)
Valor — "Daniel Vorcaro's father arrested in 6th phase of Operation Compliance Zero" (May 14)
Valor Econômico — "Podemos senator collects signatures to install Banco Master CPI" (May 14)
JOTA — "Lula resumes numerical advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in 2º turno, says Quaest" (May 14)
JOTA — "Cleitinho says he awaits 'spiritual signal' to define candidacy in MG" (May 14)
Poder360 — "Government allies call for Master CPI after Flávio and Vorcaro audio" (May 14)
Pleno.News — "Lindbergh calls for Flávio Bolsonaro's arrest after audios leak" (May 14)
Brasil 247 — "Lindbergh celebrates Quaest survey and predicts increase in Flávio's rejection" (May 14)
PlatôBR — "Quaest: increase in government approval after defeats and Lula's meeting with Trump" (May 14)
TVT News — "Quaest: Lula beats Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff" (May 14)
Money Times — "Flávio Bolsonaro admits relationship with Vorcaro, cites 'private sponsorship' for father's film and calls for Banco Master CPI" (May 14)
Portal da Câmara dos Deputados — "Transfer of Vorcaro's resources to Flávio Bolsonaro reinforces pressure for Banco Master CPI" (May 14)
Gazeta do Povo — "Gerp releases survey of voting intentions for president" (May 14)
Gazeta do Povo — "Numbers from Real Time Big Data survey for government and Senate in Goiás" (May 14)
Correio Braziliense (blog) — "Survey indicates tight dispute for GDF" (May 14)
O POVO — "The Senate at the center of the 2026 dispute" (May 14)

Method: This synthesis crosses data from Polymarket (prices at 09:00 BRT, May 14), electoral research institutes registered with the TSE and verified press coverage. Each factual claim carries an inline link or plain-text attribution to the primary source. pp variations compare to the previous day's snapshot (May 13 19:00 BRT). Editorial coverage: PT-BR, EN and ES.