What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 16, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On the Polymarket presidential, Lula remains stable at 44.50% (no change in 36 hours) while Flávio Bolsonaro recovers to 32.50% (↑4.15pp in 24h, ↑3.65pp in 36h vs 28.85% on May 15 morning). The gap narrows to +12.00pp Lula (vs +15.65pp on May 15 morning, ↓3.65pp in 36h). The broad lead priced in after the Flávio–Vorcaro audio is partially returned with the Datafolha published in the first round (Folha de S.Paulo) signaling a tighter race than the market had been pricing.

In the third way, Renan Santos rises to 9.75% (↑0.40pp in 24h) and surpasses Romeu Zema by 5.65% (↓1.20pp in 24h) for the first time at D+2 of launch. Caiado continues declining in the presidential at 1.15% (↓0.40pp in 36h), but recovers to third place at 18.50% (↑2.00pp in 24h). Michelle Bolsonaro holds 2.80% stable; the narrative of PL ticket substitution loses traction at 2L (↓0.45pp in 24h to 2.85%).

On the runoff Polymarket, Flávio maintains absolute lead at 60.50% (↓2.50pp in 24h, light decline without rupture) × Lula 15.00% stable. On the third place Polymarket, Zema cedes the top at 32.50% (↓7.00pp in 24h) while Renan firms up just below at 31.00% stable.

The pricing of impeachment STF before 2027 reverts yesterday's reversal collapse: falls to 7.25% (↓1.75pp in 24h, ↓5.50pp in 36h) after the peak of 12.75% on May 15 and returns to the 8% level registered at close of May 14 evening. The market prices in that individual processes via PF/common courts plus the possibility of Master CPI in the Legislature absorb the investigative axis of the STF theme.

On Senate 2026 most seats, PL retreats to 78.00% (↓2.00pp in 24h) while MDB surges to 16.55% (↑14.70pp in 24h) — atypical movement in low-volume market (USD 254 thousand), which warrants caution in interpretation. Republicanos yields to 10.40% (↓0.75pp in 24h, ↓1.25pp in 36h vs 11.65% on May 15). On annual inflation 2026, the central band 5.00-5.49% yields to 26.05% (↓4.80pp in 24h) with redistribution to neighboring bands; the grouping of high bands (≥6.50%) consolidates at 13.20% (↓2.70pp in 24h).

2. What the institutes recorded

The Datafolha national published today by Folha de S.Paulo brings in the first round Lula 38% × Flávio 35% (gap +3pp Lula) and in the runoff 45% × 45% in empate técnico (field May 12-14, n=2.004, registration TSE BR-00290/2026). O Globo details the retrospective evaluation component and Valor covers the runoff scenario.

The divergence with Polymarket is the most relevant signal of the day: the market prices a +12pp Lula gap in the first round; the published survey shows only +3pp. The Quaest published on May 13 with Lula 39 × Flávio 33 (gap +6pp) continues as an intermediate reference. The Folha's reading on the Vorcaro case frames the scenario as a pre-scandal snapshot, despite the field having partially captured the audio published on May 13-14.

AtlasIntel published state surveys on Maranhão and Amazonas in separate rounds over the weekend. Real Time Big Data and Quaest maintain active state tracking.

📅 Research calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at TSE with expected publication between May 17 and May 23. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 19	AtlasIntel 🔥	5.000	state	BR069392026	0.9
May 19	AtlasIntel	1.200	state	BR032432026	0.8
May 20	VETOR ARROW 🔥	9.000	state	BR049702026	0.7
May 20	Real Time Big Data	1.600	state	BR017442026	0.8
May 20	VOX BRASIL	2.100	state	BR024162026	0.7
May 21	VETOR ARROW 🔥	9.000	state	BR093012026	0.7
May 21	100 Cidades	2.000	state	BR065292026	0.7
May 21	Real Time Big Data	1.600	state	BR071142026	0.8

Source: public registration TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3.000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The reorganization of the institutional landscape gained two moves in the center. Joaquim Barbosa joined the Christian Democracy party as the party's bet for the presidency (G1), with VEJA confirming it as a candidacy for the presidency in 2026. Ciro Gomes launched a pre-candidacy for the governorship of Ceará and said he would invite Roberto Cláudio as his running mate (G1), a move also covered by Valor with context on attacks against rivals and praise for Bolsonarists.

In the Flávio–Master crisis, the Legislature absorbed dual pressure. Congress accumulated 7 requests for a Banco Master CPMI after Flávio's audio (CNN Brasil), with Sergio Moro coming to Flávio's defense and signing the request (Jornal O Sul) — a signal that the institutional path via CPI replaces the STF arena. Rogério Marinho calls for a Master CPI and points to meetings off the agenda between Lula and Vorcaro as the opposition's counter-narrative.

A fugitive from the Master Operation, identified as part of the "Os Meninos" group linked to Vorcaro, was arrested in Dubai and arrived in SP on May 16 (G1), with the Federal Police confirming to Valor the international operation. In SP, Guilherme Derrite launched a pre-candidacy for the Senate at an event with Flávio Bolsonaro in Sorocaba (G1). Zema told Estadão that criticism of Flávio over the audio with Vorcaro is "a closed chapter", signaling that the right-wing third way alliance remains intact; Caiado told G1 that he "will not make value judgments" about Flávio Bolsonaro's behavior and criticized the Lula government.

In the market, Valor exposed a comparison of spending on the Bolsonaro film with Lula and Getúlio and O Globo covered that a company belonging to the fund's administrator purchased property in the USA. Lula invited Alcolumbre and other heads of Powers for the ceremony of the pact against femicide (SBT News).

4. Day's divergences

Market × Datafolha: Polymarket prices a +12pp Lula gap in the 1º turno; the Datafolha published today (Folha de S.Paulo) registers only +3pp. The market is significantly more pessimistic for Flávio than the national survey, divergence of 9 percentage points between the signal of "real money" and the signal of "stated intent".

STF impeach — reversal of the reversal: the peak of 12.75% on May 15 was reversed to 7.25% in 36 hours, returning to the 8% level from the close of May 14 evening. The market discounted part of the impeach momentum generated by the Flávio–Vorcaro audio, pricing in that the CPMI Master in Congress (CNN Brasil) and individual cases via PF replace the STF route.

Renan surpasses Zema on the presidential race: first D+2 of launch in which the third-way Polymarket reverses order in the presidential contest — Renan at 9.75% (↑0.40pp in 24h) ahead of Zema at 5.65% (↓1.20pp in 24h). In 3rd place, Zema (32.50%, ↓7.00pp in 24h) still leads, but Renan draws closer (31.00% stable).

In summary

Published Datafolha bipolarizes Lula × Flávio with +3pp gap in the 1º turno and empate técnico in the 2º turno; Polymarket prices the contest much wider (+12pp 1T), 9pp divergence between national survey and market.
Renan surpasses Zema in third-way Polymarket presidential for the first time on D+2 of launch; STF impeach reverses the May 15 peak and returns to 8% baseline from May 14 evening.
Joaquim Barbosa (DC) and Ciro Gomes (CE) redefine the center institutional scenario; Congress accumulates 7 CPMI Master requests with Sergio Moro among signatories; fugitive "Os Meninos" arrested in Dubai arrives in SP.

Sources consulted — articles with direct links to news:

Sources consulted — secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

Method. Cross-reference of Polymarket (live prices via gamma API — Brazil presidential, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeachment, Senate, inflation 2026), electoral polls registered with the TSE (Datafolha May 16 published n=2.004 with +3pp gap Lula 1º turno and tied 2º turno; Quaest May 13 n=2.004; AtlasIntel tracking) and daily journalistic coverage. Variations in pp compared to the snapshot of May 15 11:00 BRT (morning), except where another reference is noted. Each factual claim appears with an inline link to the primary source or plain-text attribution to the outlet. Synthesis generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed before publication.