May 30, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market closed on May 30 with the top unchanged: Lula at 40.50% (USD 5.99M) and Flávio Bolsonaro at 28.65% (USD 6.13M), both without variation in 24 hours. The gap between the two remains at +11.85pp, unchanged since the previous day. On a Saturday with low news activity, the market had no new domestic fact to price in for the top two candidates.

The day's movement came from third place. Renan Santos accelerated to 17.20% (USD 6.19M), a gain of 1.60pp and the largest daily jump in the series, on the fifth consecutive day of advance. There is no identifiable triggering event on May 30 for the movement — the reading is technical, a continuation of the trend initiated on May 25, not a reaction to new developments. Going the opposite direction, Haddad gave back the recovery from previous days and fell to 5.20% (USD 5.27M) (↓1.25pp), also in a market of low conviction and with no apparent trigger. Zema cedes for the fifth consecutive day to 2.55% (USD 3.17M) (↓0.20pp), Caiado remains stable at 1.35% (USD 3.48M), and Michelle continues to lose ground, now at 0.65% (↓0.40pp).

In position markets, Renan reinforces the reading: he is the favorite for second place in the 1º turno with 17.20% in 2L — behind only Flávio, at 62.00% (↑1.50pp) — and leads third place with 41.50%. In the Senate, PL rises to 68.00% (↑0.50pp) in the dispute for more seats; MDB (15.20%), União Brasil (14.45%), and PSD (7.45%) move in sub-markets with thin books, whose volatility demands cautious reading.

The STF impeach remains at 5.45% (USD 80k), stable. In 2026 inflation, the modal range 5.00–5.49% rises to 40.55% (↑2.80pp), with the curve still concentrated in the 5–6% interval — underlying fiscal uncertainty, with no shift toward the extreme tail.

2. What the institutes recorded

No national 1º turno or 2º turno poll was published on May 30. Recent polls registered with TSE are state-level — outside the scope of the national dashboard, which maintains Datafolha from May 22 as reference (1st round Lula 40% × Flávio 31%, gap +9pp; 2nd round 47% × 43%, gap +4pp; Flávio rejection 46% above Lula 45%). The Datafolha BR042422026 remains without effective release more than a week after registration, reaffirming the rule "registered ≠ published".

At the state level, Vox institute pointed to Empate técnico between Flávio and Lula in the 2º turno in São Paulo, according to Poder360, and the dispute for São Paulo state government showed Tarcísio at 48.3% against 36.5% for Haddad in the 2º turno (Poder360) — a reading that does not enter the national aggregate, but contextualizes Tarcísio's strength in SP.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with expected release between May 31 and June 6. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. All polls qualified for the window are state-level scope. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 24 state-level polls qualified in the window; none ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The political agenda on May 30 was one of continuity, not breaking news. The main axis continues to be the United States' decision to classify PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations and its ramifications in domestic politics, already covered in previous syntheses.

In the opposition camp, Sergio Moro launched a pre-candidacy for governor of Paraná alongside Flávio Bolsonaro at an event held on May 29, with Deltan Dallagnol and Filipe Barros on the ticket, according to Poder360 and CNN Brasil, which reported Moro's affiliation with PL. The move consolidates Flávio's campaign slate in the state.

In the government camp, Lula reiterated the national sovereignty discourse in response to the American decision, asserting that Brazil "does not accept being treated like a boy", according to g1 and Poder360. The Planalto's line associates the Bolsonaro family's articulation with external support — a reading that the opposition camp itself contests. The investigative front documented by Valor regarding Vorcaro's transfer of funds to the US remains open, still in the opinion phase.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Market top immobile, movement only in 2nd tier — Lula 40.50% (USD 5.99M) and Flávio 28.65% (USD 6.13M) unchanged, gap +11.85pp unchanged; the only relevant movement was Renan accelerating to 17.20% (↑1.60pp, largest jump in the series) and cementing 2nd place, with no apparent trigger — technical reading of continuity, not reaction to fact.
2. No new national survey — the dashboard maintains Datafolha May 22 as reference (1º turno +9pp, 2º turno +4pp); the 24 state surveys recorded for the window remain in tracking, outside the national aggregate, and Datafolha BR042422026 remains undisclosed.
3. Day of political continuity — Moro's candidacy in PR (May 29) and Lula's sovereignty speech (May 29) are continuations of Friday's threads, not new facts on May 30; the axis remains the U.S. decision on PCC and CV.

Sources consulted

Articles with direct links to news

• g1 · Lula defends sovereignty after US decision on factions: 'We do not accept being treated like children'

Secondary articles (direct link to open coverage outlet)

• Poder360 — With Flávio, PL and Novo launch Moro and Dallagnol on ticket in PR
• CNN Brasil — Eyeing 2026, Moro joins PL and reconnects with Bolsonarism
• Poder360 — Lula resorts to sovereignty discourse and says he already combats PCC and CV

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched May 30 17:14 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).