What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — June 3, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

June 3 was a correction day on Polymarket following the sharp repricing of June 2. Flávio Bolsonaro fell back to 32.10% (USD 6.27M), ↓1.3pp in 24h, returning roughly one-third of the +4.2pp jump from the previous day. Lula remained stable at 39.50% (USD 6.09M), and the gap between the two widened back to +7.4pp, from +6.1pp at the previous close. The movement has two components: technical digestion of yesterday's peak and a shift in framing of the U.S. tariff increase (detailed in Section 3), without a single acute trigger on June 3 itself.

The third way remained at floor level, a consequence of the realignment on June 2 in which Tarcísio closed support for Flávio. Renan Santos stabilized at 15.80% (USD 6.55M), holding second place in the presidential market, above Haddad 4.90% (USD 5.38M), Zema 2.40% (USD 3.41M), and Caiado 1.90% (USD 3.80M). In the sub-market for second place in the first round, Renan appears at 18.70% (USD 1.01M).

In institutional markets, the contract for impeachment of a STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 5.50%, with low volume (USD 80k) that recommends cautious reading. In the Senate market, PL fell to 74.00%, with UNIÃO at 14% (thin book). In the 2026 inflation contract, the market concentrates probability in the 5.00% to 5.49% band (26%), with the tail at or above 6% still priced around 22.7%.

2. What the polling institutes registered

No new national-scope survey on June 3. The national benchmark remains Real Time Big Data from June 1 (n=2,000), which measured first round Lula 38% × Flávio 31% (gap +7pp) and, in the runoff, Lula 45% × 40% over Flávio, with Caiado tying Lula at 43% × 43% and government approval at 42% against 52% disapproval. The TSE flow for the day was entirely state-level, dominated by Veritá institute and presence of Real Time Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil in local breakdowns.

It is worth noting that the market gap (+7.4pp) widened again compared to the survey (+7pp in RTBD), undoing the rare convergence observed on June 2, when the market came to price the contest tighter than the institute.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at the TSE with publication forecast between June 4 and June 6. Table inclusion does not imply confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. No national-scope surveys registered for the window; all are state-level. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
June 4	Paraná Pesquisas	1,680	state-level	TSE query	0.8
June 4	Exatus	1,500	state-level	TSE query	0.7
June 5	Vox Brasil	2,100	state-level	TSE query	0.7
June 5	Ranking Brasil	2,000	state-level	TSE query	0.6
June 5	Numen Data	1,500	state-level	TSE query	0.6

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The agenda of June 3 was dominated by a shift in framing regarding the 25% U.S. tariff increase. What appeared on June 2 as Flávio's leading role became treated as the opposition's political cost: the columnist at g1 described the "bill of tariff hike 2.0 on Bolsonarism's tab," and the Planalto, according to Brasil 247, assesses that the offensive became an "electoral gift" for Lula.

On the diplomatic front, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira that he wants to continue dialogue on tariffs, opening a negotiation pathway. On the same front, Vice-President Alckmin stated that "whenever dialogue advances, false patriot saboteurs undermine negotiations". On the commercial side, g1 reported that exports to the U.S. fell 14% in May, although the trade balance remains positive.

From the opposition side, Flávio sustained the thesis that the tariff "is Lula's" and that he will negotiate "on equal footing" with the U.S. if elected, in addition to defending right-wing unity and predicting PT attacks on Caiado and Zema. Meanwhile, the government, through Lula's voice, maintained offensive rhetoric: the president described State Secretary Marco Rubio as "anti-Latin America" (statement from June 2) and accused Flávio of being a "traitor" who hampers negotiations with Trump.

On the previous day's agenda that reverberated into the day, Flávio received the title of honorary citizen in Belo Horizonte and met with Eduardo Cunha, and sealed a reunion with Zema in Minas. On the regional side, Acre-born Jorge Viana and Gladson Cameli lead the Senate scenario in state polling.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × research (Renan): The market keeps Renan Santos at 15.80%, second place in the presidential race, while Real Time Big Data from June 1 assigns him 6% in the first round. The gap of around 10pp remains the widest on the Dashboard between real money and declared intention.

Research × market (Caiado): The same RTBD shows Caiado technically tied with Lula at 43% × 43% in the second round, a sign of competitiveness that the market does not price in: the Caiado contract is worth less than 2%. Here research sees more than real money does—a rare inversion.

Market × narrative (tariff increase): Flávio's retreat in 24h coincides with the shift in framing of the tariff increase from protagonist to passive, but the market movement is also consistent with technical digestion of the June 2 surge. AFOS does not attribute a single cause: it registers the coincidence without asserting that the reframing alone brought down the price.

In summary

Polymarket corrected part of the previous day's reversal: Flávio returned about a third of the surge, retreated to 32.10%, and the gap to Lula returned to +7.4pp.
Without new national research, the reference remains RTBD from June 1 (gap +7pp); the market gap returned to being wider than the research gap, undoing the June 2 convergence.
The U.S. tariff increase migrated from protagonist status to negotiation agenda and political cost of the opposition, with diplomatic track reopened (Greer × Mauro Vieira) and reading of "bill on the table of Bolsonarism".

Sources consulted

Articles with direct links to news

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 3, 19:49 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).