April 23, 2026

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed April 23 with the presidential race inverted relative to the previous night. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) held at 38.5%, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) retreated from 38.95% (Apr 22) to 37.95% — in two consecutive moves: a drop to 37.75% in the morning, partial recovery of 0.2pp in the afternoon. The gap closed the day at +0.55pp in favor of Lula, against -0.45pp in favor of Flávio 24 hours earlier.

The day's outright headline, however, belonged to Romeu Zema (Novo). In the "third place in 1º turno" market, the governor jumped from 29% in the morning to 33% at night (+4pp in 8 hours), while Renan Santos rose slightly from 27% to 28.5%. The gap between them, which was 2pp in the morning and 0.5pp the day before, widened to 4.5pp. In the presidential market, however, Zema gave back part of the gain: closed at 6.95% (-0.3pp). Renan ceded to 5.65% (-0.2pp).

The most unexpected move appeared in the "second place in 1º turno" market. Lula exploded from 14.5% (Apr 22) to 22% — a 7.5pp jump unprecedented in the cycle — and held at that level throughout the day. Flávio, in the same market, retreated from 64.5% to 59.5% (-5pp cumulative). Fernando Haddad oscillated short-term: fell from 6.1% to 4.55% in the morning and recovered to 5.3% at night.

STF justice impeachment closed the session at 12.5% — stable relative to the morning, but three consecutive sessions of gains took it from 11% (Apr 22 morning) to this level. The cycle peak remains 13.5%, on April 21. In the Senate, PL held 82%, but the centrão recovered: PSD rose from 4.7% to 5.4% (+0.7pp) and MDB jumped from 3.75% to 5.25% (+1.5pp). PT held the 3.6% reached in the morning.

In 2026 inflation expectations, the 5.00-5.49% band leads with 40.2%, but retreated 1.15pp on the day. The 4.50-4.99% band rose to 37.1% (+1pp) and 3.50-3.99% gained 1.1pp. Overall, the market priced slightly lower inflation than the day before.

2. What the institutes registered

The day's headline at the TSE was the formal registration of the new AtlasIntel presidential poll, with field April 22-27 and a sample of 5,000 respondents — the largest of the cycle so far — published by CartaCapital at 15:42. Also entered into the system was the first Quaest poll for the Minas Gerais governor's race, confirmed by VEJA.

A new national divergence emerged: the Quaest released by MSN this Thursday recorded Flávio ahead of Lula in the runoff, 42% to 40% — contradicting the CNT of April 21, which had given Lula the lead with 44% to 40%. In Teresina, Piauí Hoje showed Lula at 68%, widening the gap.

The week's calendar densified further. In addition to April 27 (three Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas second round, and the first Nexus — 6,704 respondents), now April 28 concentrates the AtlasIntel of 5,000, two additional Quaest, Instituto Novo Perfil, Data AZ, and Exatus. A sum of about 9,800 respondents in a single day.

3. What the press covered

Lula publicly hardened the campaign tone this Thursday. The president promised to leave "liars naked" and intensify attacks on opponents, according to Folha de S.Paulo, InfoMoney, Poder360, and Jornal Grande Bahia. The move coincides with a recovery in government approval, according to a survey cited by JETSS.

On the right, the new development was Tarcísio's maintained distance from Flávio in São Paulo. According to a report by O Globo, the São Paulo governor has not been appearing at joint events with the senator in his state. Along the same lines, Estadão published Andreazza's analysis stating that "Flávio is moving" in political negotiations. Pivetta publicly endorsed the senator in Mato Grosso, according to Rdnews. Pleno.News recorded that Flávio wants to position himself as "the agribusiness candidate." Folha de S.Paulo described Minas Gerais as a "minefield" for the senator, with internal assessments by centrão allies.

In the Judiciary, two moves accumulated. The Federal Police delivered to the STF a report on the death of a witness linked to the Banco Master case, according to SBT News; along the same lines, Diário do Centro do Mundo recorded that the PF interviewed Lula himself about potential charges against Bolsonaro. The TSE, in turn, signed two institutional decisions of the day: ban on voting by provisional prisoners does not apply to 2026 (Folha) and authorization for decentralization of resources for elections abroad.

As a backdrop agenda, Estadão recorded Ronaldo Caiado criticizing Lula for "using the poor in low-grade politics" and expressing "concern about premature candidacy." Jovem Pan published analysis describing the liberal third way as a persistent "analytical failure."

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Lula retook the presidential lead on Polymarket (+0.55pp), hardened rhetoric ("liars naked"), and held the jump in the "second place" market (22%). Three aligned moves on the same day.
2. Zema surged in the third place (4.5pp gap over Renan, was 0.5pp the day before). The governor consolidated as the third-place candidate of the cycle — but validation still depends on the first Quaest MG, registered today at the TSE.
3. The centrão regained ground in the Senate (PSD +0.7pp, MDB +1.5pp). In parallel, Tarcísio maintains public distance from Flávio in SP. The two signals together indicate rearrangements underway in the conservative field before the heavy poll cycle of April 27-28.

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Sources cited: Polymarket, TSE, Quaest, AtlasIntel, CartaCapital, VEJA, Piauí Hoje, CNT, Datafolha, Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, Estadão, InfoMoney, Poder360, Jornal Grande Bahia, JETSS, Rdnews, Pleno.News, SBT News, Diário do Centro do Mundo, Jovem Pan.

Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or via the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.