What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — April 24, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

Flávio Bolsonaro overtook Lula on Polymarket for the first time since Monday and closed April 24 with 3.3 percentage points of advantage — the largest distance of the cycle favoring the senator. Romeu Zema crossed 10% in the presidential market for the first time, and Ronaldo Caiado appeared in the "third place" market at 16.5% in an unprecedented massive entry that did not exist in the morning. The Brazilian government published an instruction banning Kalshi and Polymarket from offering political bets in the country.

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed April 24 with clear inversion relative to the morning. In the morning, Lula led 38.5% to Flávio's 37.95% — a 0.55pp gap in favor of the president. In the afternoon, Flávio rose to 38.8% (+0.75pp) and Lula fell to 35.5% (-3pp) — the gap inverted to +3.3pp in favor of Flávio. It is the first day of the cycle on which Lula closes below 36%.

The third-way headline was Romeu Zema (Novo). The governor went from 9.15% to 10.45% (+1.3pp), crossing the 10% mark in the presidential market for the first time in the cycle. In the "third place" market, Zema jumped to 38.5% (+7.5pp) against Renan Santos's 27% (+0.5pp) — the gap widened to 11.5pp, against 4.5pp in the morning. An interview with Jornal Opção in Goiás showed the governor simultaneously discussing the 2026 elections and the future of the STF.

A less predictable move appeared in the same "third place" market: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) jumped from 1.55% to 16.5% — a rise of 15.45 percentage points in one afternoon, the largest individual variation of the cycle. The pricing temporally coincides with his statement to CBN defending "breaking polarization through coalitions." Flávio Bolsonaro also rose in the same market, from 3.05% to 9.1% (+6.05pp), forming a scenario in which four candidates dispute plausible third-place positions.

In the "second place" market, Fernando Haddad recovered violently: fell to 0.225% in the morning and closed at 3.35% in the afternoon — a +3.1pp variation in a few hours. Flávio stabilized at 64.5% (-1.5pp) and Lula rose to 20% (+2.5pp). The volatility of this market over the past three days (6.1% → 0.225% → 3.35%) signals instability in the pricing of the alternative scenario.

STF justice impeachment held at 14% — cycle peak reached in the morning and sustained at night. In the Senate, PL recovered 2pp and closed at 82%. MDB rose to 5.45% (+0.85pp) and PSD ceded to 5% (-0.5pp). In inflation expectations, the entire curve reverted toward higher values: the 5.00-5.49% band rose 3.85pp to 42.05%, and the 5.50% and 7.00%+ bands also rose. The market gave back the slight relief of the morning.

2. What the institutes registered

The TSE database now records 196 polls in the past 15 days — two more than yesterday, both new Quaest registered on April 23. The first has a sample of 1,650 respondents; the second, 1,200. Both have field April 23-27 and publication scheduled for April 29. With this, April 29 now concentrates, in addition to these Quaest, a NEOBE poll (n=1,008) — totaling about 3,858 respondents.

The new AtlasIntel presidential poll, published on April 23 by CartaCapital, continued to be digested by the press this Friday — VEJA, InfoMoney, ND Mais and other outlets published analyses throughout the day, but the specific numbers remain in limited circulation.

Next week's calendar densified. April 27 concentrates three Quaest, the second round of Paraná Pesquisas national, and the first Nexus — about 6,700 respondents. April 28 brings together the AtlasIntel of 5,000 respondents, two Quaest, Instituto Novo Perfil, Data AZ, and Exatus — 10,700 respondents. April 29 adds the two new Quaest plus NEOBE — 3,800 respondents. Combined, that is about 21,200 respondents in three consecutive days — the largest concentration of poll data in the cycle.

A new state data point: Paraná Pesquisas published a survey for Rio de Janeiro showing Eduardo Paes (PSD) at 53% in the gubernatorial race, broadly ahead of the other candidates, according to InfoMoney. In the same poll, Benedita da Silva (PT) leads the Senate race for the state — ahead of Cláudio Castro (PL) and Rogéria Bolsonaro, according to Revista Fórum.

3. What the press covered

The day's activity was dense on both sides and in the Judiciary.

Folha de S.Paulo published at 15:42 that the Brazilian government banned Kalshi and Polymarket from offering political bets in the country. The measure was announced on the same day that Polymarket recorded the leadership inversion between Lula and Flávio. Estadão published, at 15:00, an analysis around a thesis attributed to Justice Gilmar Mendes that "criticizing Romeu Zema would be attacking Minas" — the argument was elaborated in the context of criticism of opposition governors. SeLigaPB reported at 19:00 that the Federal Police is investigating whether Daniel Vorcaro benefited Alexandre de Moraes with luxury properties — it is the first formal vector of investigation directly involving the two, according to the report.

On the government side, Valor Econômico showed Fernando Haddad mobilizing support in São Paulo and framing Flávio Bolsonaro as a "democratic risk." SBT News recorded that the PT opened its Congress with internal disagreement about whether to include in debate the topics of judicial reform and the Armed Forces. Aos Fatos debunked a viral rumor that Lula had promised to move to Cuba.

On the right, CartaCapital recorded that Tarcísio de Freitas defined a "pure bolsonarist ticket" in São Paulo — a move that, added to his earlier statement to MSN (Flávio could win in the 1º turno), consolidates the governor's public alignment with the Flávio project, after two days of apparent distance. SBT News reported an informal alliance between Ricardo Salles and Guilherme Derrite for the São Paulo Senate.

In a distinct position, Ronaldo Caiado defended to CBN "breaking polarization through coalitions" — a tone different from the direct confrontation that marks Lula-Flávio and from Zema's autonomy.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × Regulatory action: the government published a restriction on prediction markets on the same day that Polymarket priced Flávio ahead of Lula by 3.3pp. The AFOS platform operates under the assumption that market data aggregates useful information; the restriction alters the operating conditions of that premise within Brazil, but does not affect the technical availability of the global data. Worth tracking whether the measure is upheld under judicial review.

Caiado: the jump from 1.55% to 16.5% in the "third place" market (+15.45pp in one afternoon) is the largest individual variation of the cycle recorded so far. The move coincides with the governor's public statement (CBN, 18:09), but has magnitude detached from any poll or prior signal. It is one of the cases in which the market prices something the institutes have not yet captured.

Haddad: the oscillation in "second place" (6.1% → 0.225% → 3.35% over 72 hours) exceeds usual volatility limits. It suggests pricing has not yet converged — the isolated data of any of the three days is not enough for a structural reading.

In summary

For the first time in the recent cycle, Polymarket priced Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula with a 3.3pp advantage. The inversion occurred in a few hours and coincides with Tarcísio de Freitas's public alignment with the senator's project in São Paulo (CartaCapital).
Romeu Zema crossed 10% in the presidential market for the first time, and Ronaldo Caiado appeared at 16.5% in "third place" in an unprecedented massive entry. The third way is now plural and priced in multiple simultaneous scenarios.
The government published a restriction on Kalshi and Polymarket on the same day Polymarket recorded a move unfavorable to the government's camp. The temporal coincidence deserves tracking — the AFOS platform remains operational via international infrastructure, but Brazil's regulatory context has changed.

Sources cited: Polymarket, TSE, Quaest, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, CartaCapital, Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão, Valor Econômico, O Globo, SBT News, InfoMoney, VEJA, Revista Fórum, Jornal Opção, CBN, SeLigaPB, Aos Fatos, ND Mais.

Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or via the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.