May 1, 2026

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed May 1 with three structural movements: Flávio's rise to a new cycle peak in the presidential race, reversal of the third-way inversion observed on April 30, and the STF impeach falling from its recent peak.

In the presidential race, Flávio Bolsonaro advanced from 43.00% to 43.55% (+0.55pp), surpassing the 43% barrier for the first time in the recent cycle. Lula held at 37.50% (stable). The gap between them widened from 5.5pp to 6.05pp in Flávio's favor — the largest differential recorded in April. Romeu Zema continued falling: 4.45% (-0.25pp), below 5% for the second consecutive day, confirming the loss of his reading as a consolidated third-way force. Camilo Santana surged from 2.25% to 3.35% (+1.10pp) — a center-left outsider gaining relevant pricing. Renan Santos held at 5.65%.

The third way had a reversal of the historic inversion of April 30. In the "third place" market, Zema retook the lead with 39.50% (+2.5pp) and Renan retreated to 33.50% (-4.5pp). The April 30 movement — when Renan overtook Zema for the first time in the cycle — lasted a single day. The market treated that event as overreaction. Other movements in the "third place": Eduardo Leite jumped to 0.85% (+0.70pp), Jair Bolsonaro advanced to 0.65% (+0.40pp), Tarcísio retreated to 0.55% (-1.10pp, giving back the April 30 rise), and Massa Ratinho reappeared with 0.25% after vanishing on April 30.

In the "second place in the first round" market, Lula held at 21.50% (stable after the April 30 recovery), Flávio retreated marginally to 65.5% (-0.5pp), and Haddad recovered to 4.55% (+0.20pp).

The STF justice impeachment market fell from 15.50% to 13.00% (-2.5pp) — exiting the cycle peak (16% recorded on April 24). It is the largest daily drop of the market in two weeks. 17-day trajectory: 13.5% → 11% → 12% → 12.5% → 12.5% → 14% → 14% → 14% → 15.5% → 15% → 15% → 16% → 11% → 14% → 15% → 15.50% → 13.00%. No specific trigger event was identified for the drop — plausible technical reading: market digestion after a series of recent rises, with the market pricing that the cycle peak was reached.

In the Senate, PL recovered to 76.5% (+2.5pp), reversing part of the April 30 drop. In the opposite direction, PSDB collapsed from 9.55% to 2.55% (-7pp), and União Brasil continued retreating (9.25%, -2.20pp). Novo recovered to 1.85% (+1.60pp), reversing the near-collapse of April 30. On inflation expectations, the scenario reorganized: the 5.00-5.49% band consolidated at 43.4% (+3.55pp, the only one above 40%), but the high tails returned forcefully — 6.00-6.49% jumped to 13.85% (+8.5pp), 6.50-6.99% to 10.65% (+6.9pp), 5.50-5.99% to 13.65% (+5.9pp). The <3% band practically disappeared (0.8%, -8.55pp).

2. What the institutes recorded

Real Time Big Data published today a national poll indicating a statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro — released ahead of schedule (publication had been planned for May 5 per TSE calendar). The poll has n=2,000 and credibility rating 0.9 — the highest among polls planned for the week. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Fernando Haddad reacted to the result claiming that only "collective brainwashing" could explain the tie — a statement that may dominate narrative over the next 48-72 hours. For context, the previous benchmark institutional poll is the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg of April 28 (n=5,000): first round Lula 46.6% × Flávio 39.7%; runoff Flávio 47.8% × Lula 47.5%.

Quaest published a state-level package today. In Goiás, Daniel Vilela (MDB) leads with 33% in the first round and holds the advantage in the runoff against Marconi Perillo and Wilder Morais. In Ceará, O POVO reported that Ciro Gomes leads against Elmano de Freitas and Camilo Santana. In Espírito Santo, Ricardo Ferraço and Renato Casagrande lead the polls for governor and Senate. In Rio Grande do Sul, the PSDB announced it will run with a single-party slate. In parallel, G1 reported that the TSE removed the governor of Roraima and ordered a new election.

The next batch concentrates in May: M B Barros on May 2 (n=800), F. Façanha + A.F. Barbosa + 100 Cidades + M B Barros on May 3 (~3,584 respondents), SETA + PERCENT + 100 Cidades on May 4 (~3,950). May 6 will concentrate approximately 10,700 respondents in polls — Datatrends (n=4,000), Ideia/Canal Meio (n=1,500), Vox Brasil (n=1,200) and others. The AFOS public launch was originally planned for May 6 but was rescheduled on May 5, 2026 to Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

3. What the press covered

The day's agenda was crossed by four blocks: Real Time Big Data and Haddad's reaction, May Day fragmentation, Alcolumbre-Flávio political articulation, and developments in the Master case.

VEJA and Folha de S.Paulo published the Real Time Big Data poll with statistical tie Lula × Flávio. Folha reported Minister Haddad's reaction ("collective brainwashing"). O Globo published that Flávio Bolsonaro "got on tiptoe and sang victory five months from the election". VEJA recorded the result as a "turning point" for the pre-candidate. Estado de Minas published a poll indicating that Nikolas Ferreira and Flávio Bolsonaro have higher rejection than Lula and Bolsonaro. Poder360 reported Flávio's statement that "the worker sustains Lula's life of luxury".

On political articulation, Revista Fórum recorded that Davi Alcolumbre articulates União Brasil and PP into Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-candidacy — described as a "pact against Lula". Estadão covered that the right occupied Avenida Paulista on May Day. Folha de S.Paulo reported that the left fragmented its May Day rallies without Lula's presence, with different currents on separate stages. BBC Brasil published an analysis titled "Lula defeated in double dose: did the government become 'hostage' to Congress?". Blog do Ricardo Antunes recorded that "the Planalto talks of betrayals after Messias's rejection". In parallel, Bloomberg Línea reported that Lula announced a debt relief program for families before the elections — economic counter-proposal.

In the Banco Master case — ongoing since Daniel Vorcaro's arrest on March 19, 2026 —, the day was marked by revelations underway and political reactions, according to VEJA ("parties and politicians trade barbs in the wake of revelations that may still surface") and Portal Tela ("parties and politicians trade barbs after revelations underway"). Gazeta do Povo published three stories: former prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol classified the scheme as "mafia in pure state" (19:51); reporting on "the hitman and the militia operating for Vorcaro" (21:50); and a record that Vorcaro called Jair Bolsonaro an "idiot and dimwit" after the former president's post about Banco Master (16:52). Terra (20:06) published an analysis of the original messages that led to the arrest decreed in March. O Globo separately recorded that "Bolsonarism follows Trump's party playbook in trying to delay the STF nomination to 2027". The context: on April 27, CNBC Brasil reported that Vorcaro was "racing to close a plea deal by the end of the week" — today's revelations phase is consistent with that plea bargain advancing.

As government coverage, Estadão covered Lula's articulation for the second Senate seat in Mato Grosso. CidadeVerde published that Minister Wellington Dias projects a "difficult" Lula × Flávio race.

4. Today's divergences

In summary

1. Real Time Big Data published a national poll with statistical tie Lula × Flávio — released ahead of schedule (had been planned for May 5). Minister Fernando Haddad reacted claiming only "collective brainwashing" could explain the result, according to Folha. Polymarket priced the tie as confirmation of competitiveness, not closing: Flávio advanced to a new cycle peak (43.55%, +0.55pp) and the gap widened to 6.05pp.
2. The April 30 historic inversion in the "third place" Polymarket reversed: Zema retook the lead with 39.50% (+2.5pp), Renan retreated to 33.50% (-4.5pp), Tarcísio gave back the April 30 rise (-1.10pp). In the presidential race, Camilo Santana surged to 3.35% (+1.10pp). The STF impeach market fell to 13.00% (-2.5pp), exiting the cycle peak (16% on April 24) — with no specific trigger event identified, technical reading of post-rise digestion.
3. The political agenda was crossed by four blocks: Real Time Big Data and Haddad's reaction; May Day fragmentation without Lula in the left's rallies and the right occupying Avenida Paulista; Alcolumbre-União-PP articulation in Flávio's pre-candidacy ("pact against Lula"); and revelations underway in the Master case (VEJA, Portal Tela). In the Senate, PSDB collapsed 7pp and Novo recovered 1.60pp; the high inflation tails returned (6.00-6.49% +8.5pp, 6.50-6.99% +6.9pp).