What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 9, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket on May 9 at 9h BRT, Lula remains stable at 37.50% and Flávio Bolsonaro registers 43.65% (↓0.20pp), with the spread falling to +6.15pp (vs. +6.35pp the previous day). This is the third consecutive session of slight compression, without either candidate yielding significant ground. Renan Santos remains at 5.85%, Zema rises slightly to 4.35% (↑0.10pp), Haddad remains at 4.05%, and Caiado holds 1.45%.

In the runoff, Flávio surges to 66.50% (↑1.00pp), further consolidating his position as Lula's expected opponent, who remains at 19.50%. The negative highlight of the section is Alckmin: 2L returns 1.60% (↓0.75pp), correcting the previous day's jump. Haddad yields slightly to 2.95% (↓0.30pp).

The dispute for third place enters a stabilization phase: Zema maintains the lead at 35.00% (stable), Renan remains at 32.50%, but Caiado returns 13.50% (↓2.50pp), correcting the jump recorded on May 8. Flávio yields to 4.85% and Haddad to 3.95%.

The most relevant movement of the day is in the STF impeach, which recovers 14.00% (↑1.00pp from 13.00%), in a movement that coincides chronologically with Moraes' decision — although the market prices institutional tension, and not direct causality, given that the impeachment of justices depends on a Senate vote. In the Senate, MDB returns strongly 3.30% (↓3.10pp) and PSB returns strongly 1.25% (↓2.35pp) — correcting strange movements from the previous day. PL remains at 81.50%, Republicanos recover slightly to 1.00% (↑0.25pp). In 2026 inflation, the extraordinary event of the day: the high bands (≥6.50%) return to 27.60% (↓17.10pp) — a movement without parallel in the recent period. The 5.00–5.49% band retakes the lead at 32.75%.

2. What the polling institutes registered

VEJA reports that Quaest began on May 8 a new national round following the rejection of Jorge Messias and the Lula × Trump meeting, with publication scheduled for May 13. Data collection encompasses an especially charged political context: the government's institutional defeat in the Senate, a bilateral meeting in the US, Operation Compliance Zero against Ciro Nogueira and — now — Moraes' individual decision on Dosimetry. Exame summarizes the week's polling picture — Meio/Ideia, Real Time, Paraná Pesquisas — with no new publications this Saturday.

In the TSE registry, the latest national publications remain active: AtlasIntel April 28 (Lula 46.6%, Flávio 39.7%) and Real Time Big Data May 5 (Lula 40%, Flávio 34%). The next window is dense: three IPOP surveys on May 10, seven surveys on May 11 (~9,270 respondents), with publications concentrated between May 13 (Quaest, Real Time, Paraná Pesquisas) and May 14 (AtlasIntel ×2 + Vox + Gerp).

In state races, Folha de S.Paulo describes the environment in Rio on the eve of Novo's launch, with former mayor Eduardo Paes vs. Douglas Ruas as the central scenario. Exame links possible Senate names for the Federal District.

3. What the press covered

A monocratic decision by Alexandre de Moraes — issued in the criminal execution of someone convicted on January 8 — suspends the application of the Dosimetry Law until STF's plenary analyzes the actions filed by the ABI and the PSOL/Rede federation questioning the constitutionality of the statute. As reported by Canal MyNews, the suspension occurred "one day after the law entered into force"; according to the Folha report, the decision is made "for legal certainty" — a technical formulation that avoids prejudging the merits. Estadão reports polarized reactions: government allies speak of a "victory for democracy"; the opposition claims "STF shut down Congress". Those convicted on January 8 are already threatening to react if the government pursues legal action. VEJA details PT's arguments in the suspension request.

In Florianópolis, Flávio Bolsonaro launched the "purebred" slate for Governor Jorginho Mello's (PL) reelection, with Carlos Bolsonaro and deputy Carol de Toni nominated for Senate — Esperidião Amin was excluded from the slate. In remarks on Friday, Flávio spoke of a government lasting up to eight years, reversing previous signaling against reelection; on Saturday, he returned to defending a single five-year term. VEJA reports that the senator promised to "end the left for the next 40 years". At the press conference, he called Moraes' decision a "bureaucratic pen stroke" and "a fix".

Folha published analysis pointing to Lula as the week's winner following the Trump meeting, and Ciro Nogueira as the loser after Operation Compliance Zero. The Folha report describes how the operation anticipated the Lula × Flávio clash over the Master case, with Flávio seeking to distance himself from the Center without breaking alliances with União Brasil/PP. In Florianópolis, Flávio repeated the formula "Pix is Bolsonaro's and Master is Lula's", while PT and the opposition compete for protagonism in the CPI of Master. In Rio, Novo launched André Marinho for the state governorship with Zema's presence, a move that creates campaign platform tension with Flávio.

On institutional matters, Malu Gaspar's column reports that the Senate Ombudsman's Office, led by Ciro Nogueira, refuses to provide records of Daniel Vorcaro's and attorney Viviane Barci de Moraes' entry into the Chamber. Folha reports that Lula government benefits total R$ 144 billion in an election year.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × institutional narrative: the STF impeachment rose 1.00pp to 14.00% on Polymarket on the same day as Moraes's decision — but the procedural path (Senate vote on a request against the minister) has no new triggering event this Saturday. The movement appears to reflect pricing of diffuse institutional tension, not a concrete catalyst. Be careful not to attribute causality that the record does not support.

Lula statements × spread: Flávio accumulated three high-impact statements over the weekend — "eight-year government", "end the left for the next 40 years", "Pix is Bolsonaro's, Master is Lula's" —, but the presidential gap compressed slightly (+6.15pp vs. +6.35pp the day before). The market appears to discount part of the provocation agenda as pre-campaign noise, not as a structuring signal.

Inflation × fiscal narrative: the high bands (≥6.50%) returned 17.10pp in 24 hours. It is a technical correction movement (excess from the day before), not a regime change in expectations. But it reduces the oxygen for the Zema/Caiado narrative of "minimal state" in the short term, while simultaneously weakening the government's thesis of "inflation control".

In summary

The market priced institutional tension, not political victory. Moraes's decision does not move the presidential gap, but causes STF impeachment to resume 14.00%. The movements are consistent with a reading of rising institutional risk without an immediate electoral catalyst.
Flávio radicalizes discourse, but loses marginal ground. Formal pre-candidacy in SC, choice of Carlos Bolsonaro for the Senate, talk of eight years of government and promise to "end the left" do not prevent a slight concession of 0.20pp. The narrative may have saturated before the national Quaest survey post-Messias and Trump (publication May 13).
Ciro Nogueira operation reopens Master front in the Centrão. The electoral effect appears less in the Lula × Flávio spread than in each side's attempt to capture the CPI — Folha de S.Paulo records Lula as the week's winner, Ciro Nogueira as the loser.—

Consulted sources — articles with direct link to the story:

Consulted sources — secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article):

Method. AFOS Daily crosses market data (Polymarket), electoral polls registered with the TSE, and news coverage with explicit ↑↓pp tags, separating verified fact from inference. See how it works and the editorial governance. Edition closed on May 9, 2026, 22h30 BRT.