May 10, 2026

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket from May 10 at 22:00 BRT, Lula jumps to 40.50% (↑3.00pp in 24 hours) — the largest individual move of the recent series in the presidential race — while Flávio Bolsonaro retreats to 41.60% (↓2.05pp). The result is a compression of the gap by 5.05pp in a single window (+1.10pp Flávio now, versus +6.15pp on May 9). The move occurs without a single attributable catalyst: May 10 is Sunday, Mother's Day, with no new national polls published. The predominant technical reading is digestion of the previous week's agenda (Moraes' decision on Lei da Dosimetria, Lula × Trump meeting, Operation Compliance Zero against Ciro Nogueira) combined with anticipation of the national Quaest, whose results are scheduled for May 13.

In the contest for second place in the first round, Flávio remains at 66.50% (stable), and Lula at 19.50% (stable). Alckmin rises to 1.90% (↑0.30pp) and Haddad recovers to 3.05% (↑0.10pp), reflecting modest consolidation of the government alliance base in second place.

In the race for third place in the first round, Zema maintains leadership at 34.50% (↓0.50pp slight), Renan Santos falls to 31.50% (↓1.00pp), and Caiado surges to 16.50% (↑3.00pp), recovering ground ceded on May 9. This is the largest individual jump in the third-place race in 24 hours. Flávio retreats to 4.80% and Haddad to 3.90%.

The sharpest movement outside the presidential race is in STF impeachment, advancing 2.50pp to 16.50%, the highest value of the recent series. The move is consistent with prolonged repercussion of Moraes' monocratic decision suspending Lei da Dosimetria on May 9, combined with news that Kassio Nunes Marques takes office as president of TSE on Tuesday (12) seeking a profile distinct from Moraes — signaling to the market an internal split in the Court.

In the Senate, total reorganization of probabilities in 24 hours: PL surges to 83.00% (↑1.50pp), Podemos rises colossally to 7.95% (↑6.55pp, from 1.40%), PSB rises strongly to 4.80% (↑3.55pp), and Republicanos jump to 3.85% (↑2.85pp), while PT retreats colossally to 0.25% (↓2.30pp) and PSD retreats strongly to 2.25% (↓2.00pp). The move has no direct news catalyst and appears to reflect repricing of coalition scenarios. On 2026 inflation, the 5.00–5.49% band surges to 34.95% (↑2.20pp) and maintains leadership; high bands (≥6.50%) retreat slightly to 26.50% (↓1.10pp).

2. What polling institutes registered

VEJA and Jornal O Sul describe expectations for the new Quaest national round — fieldwork started May 8, n=2,004, publication scheduled for May 13 — first national reading after the rejection of Jorge Messias and the Lula × Trump meeting. MSN reinforces the framing as "Lula × Flávio confrontation for the Planalto".

In the TSE registry, previous national references remain active: AtlasIntel April 28 (Lula 46.6%, Flávio 39.7%) and Real Time Big Data May 5 (Lula 40%, Flávio 34%). The May 11–14 window is dense: three IPOP polls on May 10, seven polls on May 11 (~9,270 respondents), publications concentrated on May 13 (Quaest, Real Time, Paraná Pesquisas, VETOR ARROW n=4,729) and May 14 (AtlasIntel ×2, Vox n=2,100, Gerp n=2,000). In state races, spot surveys in Mato Grosso do Sul circulating on Sunday point to Flávio's advantage in a state poll released by local outlets.

3. Press coverage

Estadão published analysis titled "Data explains why, even worn down, Lula remains competitive," reinforcing the reading that the drop in approval ratings has not eliminated the president's consolidated electoral base. In the opposition camp, Folha reports that Flávio Bolsonaro chose advertising executive Marcello Lopes ("Marcelão") to coordinate presidential campaign communications — a sign of professionalization of the apparatus. In Florianópolis, PL gathered five thousand supporters on Saturday, following up on the launch of pre-candidacies for 2026 announced on May 9.

In his speech, Flávio declared that "Brazil will retire Lula in 2026" and wore a t-shirt associating "Pix" with his father and "Master" with Lula, continuing the narrative launched on May 9. In parallel, Diário Carioca reports that "the Centrão is setting the price to support Lula or Flávio" — analytical reading on parliamentary alignment following Operation Compliance Zero.

In the institutional field, Kassio Nunes Marques assumes the presidency of TSE on Tuesday (12) by rotation system among STF ministers, with André Mendonça as vice-president. Folha reports that Kassio seeks to "shield TSE against challenges to voting machines" and signal a profile distinct from Moraes. In the same area, the CNJ Ombudsman's Office annulled creation of perks and ordered audits in three state courts.

Lula and Flávio published Mother's Day messages with overtures to female voters — a relevant observation because the female electorate has been pointed out as a central theme for both camps, with Poder360 describing how "Flávio tries to occupy the women's defense agenda used by Lula".

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The collapse of the gap is the most relevant signal of the window. Lula recovers ground ceded between May 1 and 9, and the spread returns to the level of Empate técnico priced by national polls (Real Time, AtlasIntel). The Quaest poll on May 13 is the expected catalyst to confirm or refute this convergence.
2. The transition in the TSE presidency is the second active institutional axis. Kassio Nunes's entry on Tuesday (12th) shifts the tone of the electoral court on the eve of candidate registration, and the market priced part of this in the STF impeach movement (+2.50pp).
3. Flávio's campaign becomes more professional, but discourse radicalizes in parallel. Communication coordination by an advertising professional (Folha) coexists with statements like "we will retire Lula" (Poder360) — the market appears to signal that the second dimension weighs more for the short term.—

Sources consulted — articles with direct link to news:

• Folha de S.Paulo — Kassio will assume TSE presidency to command 2026 elections (May 9)
• Folha de S.Paulo — Kassio seeks shielding at TSE against questioning of ballot boxes (May 9)
• Folha de S.Paulo — Publicist friend of Flávio Bolsonaro will coordinate campaign communication (May 10)
• Folha de S.Paulo — CNJ Ombudsman annuls creation of allowances (May 9)
• VEJA — New Quaest poll shows Lula vs. Flávio dispute less than five months before election (May 9)
• VEJA — Moraes suspends application of Dosimetry Law (May 9)

Sources consulted — secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Estadão — Data explains why, despite being worn down, Lula remains competitive (May 9)
• Jornal O Sul — New Quaest poll shows Lula × Flávio dispute less than five months away (May 9)
• MSN — The new national poll that confronts Lula and Flávio for the Planalto (May 10)
• Poder360 — Flávio Bolsonaro says Brazil will retire Lula (May 10)
• Poder360 — Pix is Bolsonaro's and Master is Lula's, says Flávio (May 10)
• Poder360 — Flávio tries to occupy women's defense agenda used by Lula (May 9)
• BOL — Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro publish Mother's Day messages with gestures to female electorate (May 10)
• Diário Carioca — Centrão sets price to support Lula or Flávio in 2026 (May 10)
• Vero Notícias — Flávio says Lula will be "retired" in 2026 (May 10)
• Muita Informação — Flávio Bolsonaro defends end of reelection (May 10)
• WH3 — PL gathers more than 5,000 supporters in Florianópolis and launches pre-candidacies (May 10)

Method. AFOS Daily crosses market data (Polymarket), electoral polls registered with TSE and journalistic coverage with explicit ↑↓pp tags, separating verified fact from inference. See how it works and editorial governance. Edition closed on May 10, 2026, 22:30 BRT.