What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 26, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

The aggregate volume of the 6 Brazil 2026 markets monitored by AFOS Analytics reaches USD 92.54M cumulative as of May 26 (presidential $88.27M, 2L $3.57M, 3L $0.31M, Senate $0.25M, STF impeach $0.08M, inflation $0.06M). The presidential on Polymarket closed with Lula at 40.50% (vol USD 5.89M cumulative), Flávio Bolsonaro at 28.85% (vol USD 6.04M) and Renan Santos at 13.85% (vol USD 5.91M). Relative to Saturday May 25 22:30 BRT, Lula advances ↑1.00pp, Flávio ↑1.20pp and Renan ↑0.80pp. The Lula × Flávio gap stands at +11.65pp, with slight compression of ↓0.20pp in 24h. The day's individual highlight is Fernando Haddad ↑1.80pp to 6.65% (vol USD 5.12M) — the largest movement among active candidates.

The aggregate behavior is consistent with technical redistribution of zeroed outsiders: Tarcísio de Freitas, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Carlos Massa Jr., Eduardo Leite and Aldo Rebelo remain priced at 0.15% with significant cumulative volumes (Tarcísio holds the largest, USD 12.15M). This capital anchored in "won't win" frees up at the margin for top-4 active candidates. This is not informational reading about the election; it is market mechanics.

In the simulated runoff (2L), Flávio Bolsonaro maintains absolute leadership at 58.00% (vol USD 59K) and Renan Santos consolidates second position with 18.25% (vol USD 1.01M) — volume is already the second largest in the sub-market, a sign of thesis strengthening. Lula in 2L at 11.50% (vol USD 73K) and Haddad in 2L at 5.05% (vol USD 656K, third largest in the sub-market). In the third round (3L), Renan leads with 35.00% (vol USD 71K) and Romeu Zema comes in at 24.00% (vol USD 12K).

In the STF impeach market priced 6.75% (vol USD 79K, ↑0.10pp 24h), maintaining the slight upward correction observed in the week. In the Senate, PL stands at 72.50% (vol USD 243K), with MDB and União Brasil tied at 12.55% and 12.60% respectively — no relevant movement after the anomalous MDB spike resolved. PT remains at 3.05%. In 2026 inflation, the 5.00%–5.49% range leads with 41.25%, followed by the 5.50%–5.99% range with 32.10%; high tail (≥6%) accumulates only 7.55%.

2. What the institutes recorded

No new Tier 1 national poll was published on May 26. The Datafolha of May 22 remains as the week's reference, with 1st round Lula 40% × Flávio 31% (gap +9pp), runoff 47% × 43% (gap +4pp) and Michelle Bolsonaro scenario 48% × 43% (gap +5pp). Approval of the Lula government improved to 32% excellent/good (↑4pp vs. 28% prior) and rejection fell to 38% (vs. 41%). The round received amplified coverage today in BBC News Brasil, CartaCapital and GZH (May 26), and the Nexus/BTG Pactual of May 25 (runoff 47×43 gap +4pp) confirmed the trend. Prior reference rounds follow: AtlasIntel May 19 (1st round 47%, runoff 48.9%) and Vox Brasil May 20 (runoff 46.8% gap +8.7pp).

The aggregate of polls registered with the TSE reached 297 total polls, with 53 from the recent window (last 15 days) — zero new entries today after the ingestion cycle. The most active institutes of the week were Veritá with 10 polls (state fields, average samples 1,700), Real Time Big Data with 4 and Vox Brasil with 3. Increased activity in state-level polling is consistent with the post-Datafolha May 22 calendar and the approach of Pernambuco, Goiás, Sergipe and other states in the coming 7 days.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between May 27 and June 2. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 27	JOTA Jornalismo 🔥	6,000	state	BR029972026	0.7
May 27	Veritá 🔥	3,330	state	BR042762026	0.7
May 27	Veritá 🔥	3,025	state	BR081862026	0.7
May 27	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state	BR035622026	0.8
May 27	INDEXA Pesquisas	2,000	state	BR021542026	0.7
May 27	Veritá	2,020	state	BR032132026	0.7
May 28	Datafolha	1,022	state	BR042422026	0.8
May 28	AtlasIntel	1,000	state	BR065942026	0.8
May 28	Ideia/Canal Meio	1,500	state	BR029182026	0.6
May 28	Anova Pesquisa	2,000	state	BR068762026	0.7
May 29	PoderData	2,400	state	BR048822026	0.7
May 29	Media Inteligência	2,000	state	BR079092026	0.7
May 29	Veritá	2,020	state	BR027852026	0.7
May 30	Opinião Estatística	1,000	state	BR075352026	0.6
May 30	Anova Pesquisa	2,000	state	BR048462026	0.7
May 30	Vox Brasil	1,480	state	BR087942026	0.6
May 31	Vox Brasil	2,100	state	BR095392026	0.7
May 31	SETA Pesquisa	1,500	state	BR018782026	0.6

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing figures. Datafolha May 28 is the week's key test: will confirm or contest the convergence observed in the prior round.

3. What the press covered

The agenda of May 26 was consumed by Flávio Bolsonaro's visit to the White House, with coverage in at least six prestigious outlets simultaneously. As reported by O Globo, Flávio was received by Donald Trump amid the crisis involving Banco Master and Daniel Vorcaro. G1 and Estadão registered the event as a symbolic moment of Trump's formal entry into the Brazilian electoral process. In a video released by G1, Flávio called Trump "president Lula" in a slip of the tongue corrected immediately after. The editorial analysis by Octávio Guedes in G1 characterized the photo as closer to a "fan meeting an idol" than a pre-candidate with a president.

On the domestic front, Tarcísio de Freitas (PL-SP) distanced himself publicly from Flávio in an interview cited by O Globo, G1 and Estadão, stating that Flávio "has many issues he himself needs to explain" regarding his relationship with Vorcaro. According to coverage in Estadão and InfoMoney (May 26), allies of the Rio de Janeiro governor already consider his candidacy for Senate unfeasible.

The Banco Master/Vorcaro front advanced in parallel. The Federal Police Operation against Cláudio Castro was the headline of O Globo and Estadão (Blog Fausto Macedo, May 26), investigating transfers from Rioprevidência into Banco Master. Detailed reports from Malu Gaspar's column in O Globo assert that Vorcaro financed Castro's trips and events, including abroad. In another report from the same outlet, the PF points to "political alignment" between Castro and Vorcaro as the driver of the investment. Two of Castro's cell phones were seized, according to O Globo. Folha de S.Paulo (May 26) reported that the TJ-RJ denied a preliminary injunction for the establishment of the Banco Master CPI in the Alerj, closing one of the institutional fronts that attempted to accelerate the case at the regional legislative level.

In Lula's allied camp, Soraya Thronicke (ex-PSL/Podemos) declared support for reelection in a move that marginally reorganizes the non-Bolsonaro center-right space, according to coverage in G1 (May 26). On the legislative front, Lula and Hugo Motta closed the agreement on the 6x1 work schedule, with greater transition for concessionaires allowing the issue to move forward without friction (Folha de S.Paulo, Markets, May 26). Finally, Davi Alcolumbre sidestepped the question about installing the Banco Master CPI in the Senate, prioritizing the Adultization CPI.

4. Divergencies of the day

Market × research: Polymarket prices the Lula × Flávio gap at +11.65pp, while Datafolha 22/May records a gap of only +9pp in the 1º turno and +4pp in the 2º turno. The sustained distance of at least 2.65pp between the gap priced by the market and the gap measured by the most recent Tier 1 research is the most persistent signal of the cycle, and grew marginally in today's compression.

Market × narrative: The prestige press covered May 26 with headlines dominated by the Trump-Flávio visit + PF Operation against Cláudio Castro — two events that could suggest a negative reading for the Bolsonarist field. But Flávio on Polymarket rose ↑1.20pp, against the tide of the narrative. Correct attribution: technical movement of outsider redistribution, not informational reading. Market and press signal opposite vectors in the short term.

Research × narrative: Datafolha 22/May showed Flávio's rejection at 46% (surpassing Lula at 45% for the first time in the cycle), but today's narrative about the trip to the US is presented by columns in O Globo, Estadão and G1 as a "symbolic meeting of the identity of the global right". There is a disconnect between the quantified metric (rejection) and narrative framing (brand affirmation).—

Summary

Polymarket rises top-4 assets in block (Lula ↑1.00pp, Flávio ↑1.20pp, Renan ↑0.80pp, Haddad ↑1.80pp) by technical redistribution of zeroed outsiders. Haddad stands out individually with accumulated USD 5.12M volume.
Institutional agenda dominated by Flávio at the White House + PF Operation against Cláudio Castro, with 6+ prestige outlets covering each event. Tarcísio (PL-SP) states that Flávio needs to explain relationship with Vorcaro.
Polymarket × Datafolha gap persists at ≥2.65pp — market more optimistic for Lula than institutes with solid sample. Datafolha May 28 is the week's key test.

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched May 26 21:15 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

Cited sources: Polymarket, TSE (public registry), O Globo, G1, Estadão, Folha de S.Paulo, BBC News Brasil, CartaCapital, GZH, InfoMoney, Canal MyNews (Nexus/BTG Pactual), Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Vox Brasil.

Method: Synthesis generated with AI assistance cross-referencing prediction market data, polls registered with TSE, and editorial coverage. Each factual claim links directly to primary source. Method source and open code at afos-analytics.com.

History: May 25 synthesis available at /en/daily/2026-05-25. Full archive at /en/daily.