May 25, 2026

1. Prediction market

The Polymarket presidential market — with accumulated aggregate volume of ~USD 87M since opening, summing the 17 active contracts — registered on Monday, May 25 the largest compression movement of the Lula × Flávio gap in the cycle. Lula fell from 45.50% to 39.50% (accumulated USD 5.85M volume), a decline of 6.00pp in 24h — the first material movement of the contract after a flatline of more than 100 hours since Wednesday, May 21. Flávio, in turn, rose from 26.05% to 27.65% (accumulated USD 5.99M volume), recovering 1.60pp after seven consecutive days of decline that began on May 17 (the cycle minimum had been 26.05% on May 24). The gap between the two compressed from +19.45pp to +11.85pp, a reduction of 7.60pp in a single session.

In the dispute for the third way, Haddad surged to 8.05% (accumulated USD 5.02M volume), a gain of 3.20pp in 24h and the strongest movement of any secondary candidate in the Polymarket cycle. Renan Santos continued on an upward trajectory with 14.40% (↑1.35pp 24h, accumulated USD 5.83M volume), consolidating the position of the most quoted third way in the market. Zema declined slightly to 4.65% (accumulated USD 2.85M volume), and Michelle Bolsonaro recovered to 2.00% (↑0.45pp 24h, accumulated USD 6.70M volume), a partial reversal of Sunday's collapse. Caiado fell 0.10pp to 1.55% (accumulated USD 3.21M volume).

In the second place market (2L), Flávio maintained the top position at 56.50% (USD 58k volume), while Renan Santos surged from 14.25% to 17.85% (↑3.60pp 24h, USD 1.0M volume), tracking the increase in the 1T contract. Lula fell to 11.00% (↓0.50pp, USD 73k volume), Haddad declined to 4.80% (↓0.75pp, USD 655k volume) — an interesting divergence between Haddad's surge in the 1T and the slight decline in 2L, suggesting that the positive repricing concentrates on the probability of reaching the runoff as top finisher (with Lula ruled out), not as vice. In 3L (third place), the highlight is the historic Haddad surge from 3.00% to 13.40% (↑10.40pp in 24h, USD 16k volume), jumping to the fourth position overall behind Renan (35.00%, ↑0.50pp), Zema (26.50%, flat) and Caiado (14.50%, ↓2.00pp).

In the STF impeachment market before 2027, the contract declined marginally to 6.65% (↓0.05pp 24h, USD 79k volume), holding above 6% for the fifth consecutive session — upward trajectory consolidated after a low of 4.35% on May 21. In the Senate plurality market, PL declined to 69.50% (↓0.50pp 24h, USD 243k volume), maintaining dominance. Contracts with low volume showed spikes that should be treated as distortion, not signal: União Brasil jumped to 12.65% (↑8.35pp 24h) and MDB to 12.90% (↑8.15pp 24h), both with accumulated USD 1k volume — below the relevance threshold (USD 500k) set on May 18. These movements are typically low-liquidity arbitrage.

In 2026 inflation bands, the 5.00–5.49% band surged to 37.50% (↑7.10pp 24h vs 30.40%), expanding dominance as the absolute modal band. The 4.50–4.99% band held at 30.20%, while the 5.50–5.99% band contracted to 10.15% (↓6.45pp 24h vs 16.60%). High bands (≥6.50%) rose slightly to 7.10% (↑1.45pp 24h vs 5.65%), a partial reversal of the fiscal tail compression observed over the weekend.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

The national agenda of the day was dominated by the BTG/Nexus publication with a 2º turno scenario Lula 47% × Flávio 43%, gap +4pp, reported consistently by Estadão, Folha de S.Paulo, JOTA, GZH and Congresso em Foco. The result is identical to the gap registered by Datafolha on May 22 (47×43, +4pp 2T) — direct confirmation without widening the magnitude. JOTA added complementary analysis on vote transfer in the 2º turno, and CartaCapital covered how Catholics and evangelicals distribute themselves between Lula and Flávio, according to the same survey.

The aggregate of polls registered at TSE accumulates 296 polls (52 published in the last 15 days). The most active institutes in the recent window are Veritá (10 publications, average sample 1,703), Real Time Big Data (4), AtlasIntel (3), Datafolha (2) and Vox Brasil (2). As reported by InfoMoney, the next round of Real Time Big Data is already in the field, with Aécio Neves included as a PSDB pre-candidate in the scenario — the first print explicitly testing Aécio's viability as an alternative post-Vorcaro.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered at TSE with publication scheduled between May 27 and May 31. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via public query. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. Zero Tier-1 national polls registered for the next week — next national print expected in the 1st–2nd week of June.

3. What the press covered

The editorial analysis with the most traction was the column by Amanda Klein in UOL Economia, with a direct title: "Post-Vorcaro: Lula doesn't win, and Flávio loses little". The reading — according to the columnist — is that Flávio's decline in the Vorcaro audio leaks did not convert into proportional gains for Lula, and the 2º turno gap remains narrow (4pp in Nexus/BTG Pactual and Datafolha). CartaCapital reported that Lula's advantage plummeted in the Northeast, reaching the smallest difference ever recorded between approval and rejection in the region, fragmenting the "Lula with a wide lead" narrative that had been dominating the post-Datafolha story.

In opposition dynamics, Zema returned to criticizing Flávio in an interview reported by Money Times: "whoever votes for Flávio hands the election to Lula", according to a statement by the governor of Minas Gerais. Caiado, in a parallel response, defended unity among right-wing leaders. Sergio Moro called Lula a "lie of the century" about Lava Jato, as reported by Congresso em Foco. Gazeta do Povo covered the meeting between Flávio and Donald Trump in the United States — an agenda initiated on May 23 and maintained in development throughout the day. The same Gazeta published analysis on the resurgence of Michelle Bolsonaro as a presidential option in electoral surveys.

On the institutional agenda, Valor Econômico reported that the government closes today its proposal on the transition from the end of the 6×1 work schedule, following a meeting between Lula and the president of the Chamber Hugo Motta — an agenda scheduled since May 23. Gilmar Mendes, in an interview reported by Tribuna da Internet, stated that the post-Vorcaro crisis "is not in the STF, but on Faria Lima" — an institutional signal from the minister about the Banco Master case. BBC News Brasil published analysis on how AI is "supercharging the arsenal" of 2026 election campaigns, an editorial report on the use of artificial intelligence tools by candidate teams.

4. Day's divergences

Summary

1. Largest compression of the Polymarket cycle gap: Lula × Flávio closed from +19.45pp to +11.85pp in 24 hours, with Lula declining 6.00pp for the first time in more than 100 hours after the Nexus/BTG Pactual publication confirmed (without expanding) the 4pp 2º turno gap registered by Datafolha on May 22.
2. Haddad as the day's highlight: spike of 3.20pp in the 1º turno to 8.05% and of 10.40pp in the third place to 13.40% — movements of unprecedented magnitude in the cycle, possibly reflecting repricing as PT substitute/successor in scenarios where Lula declines.
3. Magnitude divergence remains open but in accelerated compression: Polymarket 1º turno +11.85pp vs polls 2º turno +4pp. For the first time in the cycle, the market moves actively toward the poll number. Next polls (including Real Time Big Data with Aécio Neves) and Datafolha print in June will determine whether the validation cycle closes or reopens.

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Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Estadão — Lula has 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43% in the 2º turno (BTG/Nexus)

• Folha de S.Paulo — BTG/Nexus: Lula has 47% and Flávio 43% in the 2º turno

• Valor Econômico — Government closes proposal for 6×1 transition todaySecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• JOTA — 2026 Elections: who gains from vote transfer in 2º turno (BTG/Nexus)

• Congresso em Foco — Lula has 47% versus 43% Flávio in 2º turno

• GZH — Lula has 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43% in second round

• InfoMoney — Real Time Big Data measures 2026 scenario with Aécio Neves

• UOL — Post-Vorcaro: Lula doesn't win, and Flávio loses little (Amanda Klein)

• CartaCapital — Lula's advantage plummets in Northeast

• CartaCapital — How Catholics and Evangelicals vote in Lula × Flávio

• Money Times — Zema: whoever votes for Flávio hands election to Lula

• Congresso em Foco — Sergio Moro calls Lula "lie of the century"

• Gazeta do Povo — How the Flávio × Trump meeting impacts elections

• Gazeta do Povo — Why Michelle Bolsonaro resurfaces as an option

• Tribuna da Internet — Gilmar reacts to Master: crisis is in Faria Lima, not in STF

• BBC News Brasil — How AI turbocharged the 2026 campaign arsenal

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes, fetched May 25 22:30 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).