May 31, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market closed May 31 with the top flat: Lula at 40.50% (USD 6.01M), no change in 24 hours. Flávio Bolsonaro falls to 28.35% (USD 6.14M) (↓0.30pp), and since the decline came only from his side, the gap between the two WIDENS to +12.15pp (versus +11.85pp the previous day). On a Sunday with low activity, the movement is noise, not repricing.

Renan Santos gives back part of the jump that took him to his peak on May 30: falls to 16.85% (USD 6.25M) (↓0.35pp), in a technical correction after five days of gains, but comfortably maintains second place in the market. Haddad rises slightly to 5.30% (USD 5.29M) (↑0.10pp), Zema breaks the losing streak and advances to 2.75% (USD 3.24M) (↑0.20pp), and Caiado moves to 1.45% (USD 3.50M). In position markets, Flávio leads second place with 62.50% in 2nd place and Renan is the favorite for third.

In the Senate, PL maintains 68.00% in the race for more seats; below it, União Brasil (14.90%), PSB (14.30%, in a sharp book jump), MDB (15.20%) and PSD (6.55%) move in sub-markets with low liquidity, which require cautious reading. The STF impeach remains at 5.45% (USD 80k), stable.

The underlying signal of the day came from inflation. The market shifted the 2026 curve upward: the 6.00–6.49% band jumped to 23.70% (↑6.75pp) and the 6.50–6.99% rose to 14.90%, with the modal 5.00–5.49% band still at 40.95%. This is repricing for slightly higher inflation — the type of macro movement that electoral surveys do not capture.

2. What the polling institutes registered

No national 1º turno or 2º turno poll was published on May 31. Recent polls registered with TSE are state-level, outside the scope of the national dashboard, which maintains Datafolha from May 22 as reference (1st round Lula 40% × Flávio 31%, gap +9pp; 2nd round 47% × 43%; Flávio rejection 46% above Lula 45%). The Datafolha BR042422026 remains without effective disclosure more than a week after registration.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 1 and June 7. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. There are 26 qualified polls in the window, all state-level scope (none national) — the table below lists the 8 with largest sample, distributed from June 1 to 5. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registration TSE via AFOS Analytics API. Showing 8 of 26 qualified state-level polls (≥ 1,000) in the window; none ≥ 3,000 and none with national scope. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective disclosure requires verification from two primary sources before citing figures.

3. What the press covered

Coverage on May 31 was of low intensity, with one developing thread: the realignment of the center-right. Ronaldo Caiado stated he was negotiating with Romeu Zema and said he sought "that there be no fragmentation of the center-right", according to g1. In the same move, Gilberto Kassab admitted the possibility of forming a ticket with Caiado, but indicated that the decision will only be made in July (g1, Andreia Sadi). Jornal Opção evaluates that the alliance could create a center-right alternative to Flávio Bolsonaro.

In the same camp, Aécio Neves returned to the center of PSDB articulation as a piece against the barrier clause, according to Gazeta do Povo — a sign that the center third way remains fragmented and in search of viability.

On the already-known axis, the United States' decision to classify PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations continued to be used as an electoral weapon between the PT and Flávio camps, in continuation of coverage from previous days.

4. Today's divergences

In summary

1. Top immobile, gap widens at the bottom — Lula stays at 40.50% and the gap to Flávio widens to +12.15pp because Flávio yields 0.30pp; Renan returns part of the jump (16.85%). All within the noise range, no trigger.
2. The signal of the day is macro — the 2026 inflation market shifts the curve upward (band 6.00-6.49% ↑6.75pp), repricing a tighter fiscal scenario that polls do not measure.
3. Center-right regroups — Caiado negotiates with Zema "to prevent fragmentation", Kassab admits ticket (decision in July) and Aécio reappears in the PSDB; without new national polling, it is the political thread to follow.—

Sources consulted

Articles with direct link to the news

• g1 · 'We seek to prevent center-right fragmentation', says Caiado about negotiations with Zema
• g1 (Andreia Sadi) · Kassab admits possibility of running ticket with Caiado, but says decision will be made in July

Secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article)

• Jornal Opção — Alliance between Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema could create alternative to Flávio Bolsonaro against Lula
• Gazeta do Povo — Aécio Neves becomes PSDB trump card against barrier clause

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched May 31, 18:40 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).