June 1, 2026

1. Prediction market

The day's movement came from the third-place tier. Ronaldo Caiado jumped to 2.60% (USD 3.70M) (↑1.15pp in 24h), the book's largest relative gain, repriced after a national poll showed him tying with Lula in the 2º turno. At the top, Flávio Bolsonaro rose to 29.20% (USD 6.17M) (↑0.85pp), and as Lula remained stable at 40.50% (USD 6.03M), the gap between the two NARROWED to +11.3pp (versus +12.15pp the previous day).

Fernando Haddad rose to 6.10% (USD 5.32M) (↑0.80pp), in fine market noise with no direct presidential event. Renan Santos remained stable at 16.80% (USD 6.44M), maintaining second place in the market, and Zema moved sideways at 2.75–2.80%. In position markets, Flávio remains the leader for second place and Renan is the favorite for third.

The institutional highlight was the Senate: PL jumped to 77.50% in the race for most seats (↑9.5pp), a large move that, given the relatively thin book of the sub-market, calls for cautious reading. The STF impeach remained stable at 5.50% (USD 80k), with no repricing.

Today's technical reading: money reacted to the new poll by pricing upward the third option that appeared competitive (Caiado), while the top matchup adjusted marginally. The presidential gap in the market remains wider than what has been registered in polls.

2. What the institutes recorded

The agenda was dominated by a national poll: Real Time Big Data (n=2,000, field May 29–30, TSE registry BR-05864/2026), the first national poll released after the Vorcaro case explosion. In the 1º turno, Lula appears at 38% and Flávio at 31% (gap +7pp), followed by Caiado and Renan at 6%, Zema at 4%, and Aécio at 3%.

The most commented finding is in the 2º turno: Lula expands against Flávio to 45% × 40%, but against center-right names, Caiado ties with Lula (43% × 43%) and Zema comes close (43% × 40%) — that is, both appear more competitive against Lula than Flávio himself. On government approval, Lula registers 42% approval and 52% disapproval (6% no opinion), with 48% rating management as poor or very poor and 40% saying the economy has worsened. The numbers align with Datafolha from May 22 (1st round 40% × 31%, gap +9pp; 2nd round 47% × 43%) and Meio/Ideia from May 28 (1st round 38.5% × 31.5%) as recent benchmarks.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between June 2 and June 8. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. There are 26 qualified polls in the window, all of state scope (none national) — the table lists those with largest samples. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. Shown are the 5 largest of 26 qualified state-scope polls (≥ 1,000); none of national scope. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The political event of the day was an operation targeting an NGO linked to the producer of the documentary "Dark Horse": Flávio Bolsonaro classified the action as "fishing for evidence" and spoke of "persecution," according to g1. The episode revives the judicial weaponization axis that has marked the senator's campaign.

In the same vein, Flávio continued attempting to capitalize on the United States' decision to classify PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations, as a continuation of coverage from previous days; UOL reported the view that he "scored an important goal and passed the hot potato to Lula." On the other side, Fernando Haddad reaffirmed his defense of the "tax on small blouses" even after Lula's retreat, stating that "his opinion has not changed."

In the center-right field, the survey showing Caiado and Zema more competitive than Flávio reinforced the thesis of realignment that has been underway since the meeting between the two on May 27. In the Judiciary, the STJ gave Romeu Zema 15 days to respond in a defamation case involving Minister Gilmar Mendes.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Today's research moved the third way — Real Time Big Data showed Caiado and Zema more competitive than Flávio against Lula in the 2º turno, and Polymarket repriced Caiado upward (+1.15pp), the largest gain in the book.
2. The top adjusted slightly — Flávio rose (+0.85pp) and the gap to Lula narrowed to +11.3pp, but the market continues pricing a larger margin than the surveys (+7pp in the 1T).
3. Institutional and judicial signal — PL Senate jumped to 77.50% (thin book, cautious reading); the operation against the NGO of the producer of "Dark Horse" rekindles the axis of judicialization in Flávio's campaign.

Sources consulted

Articles with direct news link

• g1 · Flávio Bolsonaro fala em 'pescaria probatória' e 'perseguição' ao comentar operação contra ONG de produtora de 'Dark Horse'
• Exame · Real Time Big Data: Lula tem 38% e Flávio Bolsonaro, 31%, no 1º turno
• Gazeta do Povo · Real Time Big Data divulga pesquisa para presidente da República

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

• Portal N10 — Pesquisa mostra Caiado e Zema mais competitivos que Flávio contra Lula no 2º turno
• Brasil247 — Lula tem 45% e Flávio Bolsonaro 40% no 2º turno, diz Real Time Big Data
• Money Times — Lula volta a liderar e supera Flávio por 45% a 40% no 2º turno, aponta Real Time Big Data
• UOL Notícias — RealTime Big Data: Caiado e Zema superam Flávio em 2º turno contra Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 1, 23:41 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).