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AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

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What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — June 4, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On June 4, the prediction market closed out the reversal of Flávio Bolsonaro's surge on Polymarket. He retreated for the second consecutive day, to 30.40% (USD 6.42M), ↓1.7pp in 24 hours, giving back nearly all of the +4.2pp surge recorded on June 2 and returning to a level close to where he stood before the shift. Lula, in the same movement, recovered to 40.50% (USD 6.10M), ↑1.0pp. The gap between the two, which had reached +6.1pp on June 2, widened back to +10.1pp, near the +11.3pp baseline that existed before the shock. In roughly 72 hours the market priced the event (Tarcísio + tariff increase), digested it, and gave back nearly everything.

The third way remained at the floor. Renan Santos held steady at 15.90% (USD 6.57M), maintaining second place in the presidential market, ahead of Haddad 5.10% (USD 5.40M), Zema 2.50% (USD 3.43M), and Caiado 1.90% (USD 3.81M).

In institutional markets, the impeachment contract for STF minister before 2027 held steady at 5.50% (USD 80k), low volume warranting cautious reading. In the Senate market, PL eroded for the fourth consecutive day, to 72.50% (from 77.50% on June 1). In the 2026 inflation contract, the market continues concentrating probability in the 5.00% to 5.49% band (26.5%), with the tail at or above 6% priced around 22.7%. The cumulative volume of the presidential market stands at around USD 95M.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

There was no new national-scope poll on June 4. The national benchmark remains Real Time Big Data from June 1 (n=2,000), which measured first round Lula 38% × Flávio 31% (gap +7pp) and, in the second round, Lula 45% × 40% over Flávio, with Caiado tying Lula 43% × 43% and government approval at 42% against 52% disapproval. The day's flow in TSE was entirely state-level, dominated by Veritá institute.

The relevant detail from the cross-check: after the reversal of the surge, the gap priced by the market (+10.1pp) once again became wider than that recorded in the latest national poll (+7pp). This is the typical relationship of the cycle (market opens wider margin than the institute), resumed after the fleeting convergence of June 2.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 5 and June 6. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. No national-scope polls registered for this window; all are state-level. Each protocol linked to the TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
June 5	Vox Brasil 🔥	2,100	state-level	TSE query	0.7
June 5	Ranking Brasil	2,000	state-level	TSE query	0.6
June 5	Numen Data	1,500	state-level	TSE query	0.6
June 6	Paraná Pesquisas	1,500	state-level	TSE query	0.8
June 5	Brasmarket	1,200	state-level	TSE query	0.5

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 2,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The June 4 agenda consolidated the U.S. tariff increase as a political cost for the opposition. International press reported that Trump "breaks truce with Lula" and causes "storm" in Brazil, and the government, according to UOL, began to see Trump and Flávio's attack as "a gift to Lula".

On the government side, the strategy was to attack Secretary Marco Rubio and seek direct negotiations with Trump: Lula announced a new letter to Trump, and Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira stated that U.S. arguments for applying the tariffs "are not legitimate". The central framing became PIX: in a ministerial meeting (June 3), Lula stated that "PIX belongs to Brazil", and the government began to say that the Bolsonaro family wants to hand it over to the private sector. The escalation is concrete: the tariff could reach 37.5% with an additional surcharge, according to the government.

On the opposition side, Flávio responded with the poster "PIX belongs to Brazil and to Bolsonaro", maintaining the expectation that Trump will heed his request. But fragmentation on the right appeared: Renan Santos called Flávio someone who "favors Lula". Estadão observed that, with Lula and Flávio dominating the tariff dispute, Zema, Caiado, and Renan lose the chance to showcase their project.

On the institutional front, Nunes Marques took over the rapporteurship at the TSE of electoral representations involving Flávio Bolsonaro and the Master case. On the day's agenda, Flávio, Tarcísio, Nunes Marques, and Jorge Messias participated in the March for Jesus in São Paulo, while Lula said he did not attend so as not to "give the impression" of taking political advantage of faith.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × research (gap): The reversal of the surge repositioned the market gap (+10.1pp) above that recorded in the latest national poll (+7pp, RTBD June 01). The rare convergence of June 02, when the market came to price the race tighter than the institute, lasted only one day.

Market × research (Renan): The market maintains Renan Santos at 15.90%, second place in presidential race, while RTBD June 01 gives him 6% in the first round. The distance of approximately 10pp remains the widest on the dashboard between real money and declared intent.

Market × narrative (tariff shock): Flávio's decline in 48 hours coincides with the consolidation of the tariff shock as opposition liability, but the movement is also compatible with the technical digestion of the June 02 surge. AFOS does not assign a single cause: it records that the event that opened the premium (Tarcísio's support) and the one that closed it (tariff shock becoming a cost) succeeded each other in less than 72 hours.

In summary

Flávio's surge reversed almost entirely: ↓1.7pp to 30.40% on the second day of decline, with the gap to Lula back to +10.1pp, near the baseline before the turnaround.
The U.S. tariff shock consolidated as political cost for the opposition: Lula won the framing ("The PIX belongs to Brazil"), the tariff could reach 37.5%, and even Renan attacked Flávio, while the third way loses ground in the race.
Without a new national poll, the market gap (+10.1pp) returned to exceed that of the poll (+7pp); the structural divergence of Renan (market 15.90% × poll 6%) remains the largest on the dashboard.—

Sources Consulted

Articles with direct news links

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 4 14:15 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).