What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — June 5, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On June 5th, Flávio Bolsonaro continued his decline on Polymarket. He fell for the third consecutive day, to 28.20% (USD 6.43M), ↓2.2pp in 24h, now below the level he held before the June 2 surge. Lula, in the same movement, rose to 41.50% (USD 6.14M), ↑1.0pp. The gap between the two widened from +10.1pp to +13.30pp, the widest of the recent cycle. The surge that Tarcísio's support had unlocked on June 2 not only was returned but the market opened additional room for Lula.

The third way remained at the floor, with slight technical rebound. Renan Santos rose to 16.40% (USD 6.61M), ↑0.5pp, maintaining the second place in the presidential market, ahead of Zema 3.25% (USD 3.47M), Haddad 2.65% (USD 5.54M), and Caiado 2.35% (USD 3.86M). Haddad fell 2.45pp and lost the third presidential position in the market. In the market for second place in the first round, Flávio maintains broad leadership, with 62.50% (USD 61k).

In institutional markets, the impeachment contract for STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 5.45% (USD 80k), low volume that calls for cautious reading. In the Senate market, PL continues at 72.50% (USD 243k), ahead of MDB 21.95% and União Brasil 13.25%. In the 2026 inflation contract, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% concentrates the highest probability (34.15%), with ranges equal to or above 6% priced between 23% and 27%. The accumulated volume of the presidential market is around USD 96M.

2. What the institutes registered

New national survey released. Vox Brasil released on June 5 (n=2,100, fieldwork from June 1-3, margin of ±2.15pp, TSE protocol BR-08016/2026) measured, in the first round, Lula 42.1% × Flávio 33.6%, a gap of +8.5pp. The survey registers Lula rising +7.8pp since mid-May (from 34.3% to 42.1%) and Flávio falling 2.9pp in the same period. In the runoff, Lula scores 47.8% × 41.3% over Flávio, and leads all scenarios, technically tied with Caiado and Zema. In the survey, Caiado leads the third way with 6.9% in the first round. Registered at TSE as state-level, the survey was published with the national presidential scenarios above, confirmed in independent primary sources.

The detail of the cross-check: for the first time since the ephemeral convergence of June 2, market and survey move in the same direction, both widening Lula's advantage. Still, the gap priced by the market (+13.30pp) remains wider than that of the survey (+8.5pp), the typical relationship of the cycle. The TSE flow on the day was entirely state-level.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at TSE with expected publication between June 6-10. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. No national-scope surveys registered for this window; all are state-level. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
Jun 6	Paraná Pesquisas	1,500	state-level	TSE query	0.8
Jun 7	Veritá	2,030	state-level	TSE query	0.7
Jun 8	Veritá	2,010	state-level	TSE query	0.7
Jun 9	Gerp	2,000	state-level	TSE query	0.7
Jun 9	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state-level	TSE query	0.8
Jun 10	Quaest	2,004	state-level	TSE query	0.9

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. Press coverage

The June 5 agenda maintained the U.S. tariff hike and the PIX dispute as political cost for the opposition. Estadão reported that the left dominates the debate on tariffs and PIX, and that Eduardo Bolsonaro's statement puts pressure on Flávio's campaign.

On the opposition side, Flávio maintained the framing that "PIX belongs to Bolsonaro", although Folha reports that the former president said he was unaware of the measure in 2020. On the government side, Lula began positioning himself also as an anti-system candidate, capitalizing on external friction.

On institutional matters, the judicial front of the Master case moved. Flávio asked the STF to declare Alexandre de Moraes disqualified to judge the case, in a petition filed on June 1 to be analyzed by Edson Fachin, alleging the R$ 80.2 million contract between the minister's wife's law firm and Master. On the same day, Fachin rejected the request to remove Nunes Marques from the Banco Master CPI rapporteurship. In the background, the government continues to digest the historic rejection of Jorge Messias's nomination to the STF (42 to 34 votes, at end of May, the first defeat of this type in over 130 years), which Lula promised to resubmit.

A coverage note: VEJA described "the candidate who grows in polls and becomes a headache for the right in the Lula × Flávio duel", a reading that aligns with the persistent divergence between market and polls in the third way.

4. Daily divergences

Market × survey (direction): For the first time since June 2, real money and declared intent move together: the market widened Lula's gap to +13.30pp and Vox Brasil widened it to +8.5pp in the first round. Even aligned in direction, the market continues pricing the race wider than the institute.

Market × survey (third way): The reversal deepens in both directions. Caiado posts 6.9% in the first round of Vox and ties Lula in the second round, but the market keeps him at 2.35%. Renan Santos is the opposite: 16.40% in the market, second place, against roughly 6% in surveys. The Dashboard records the largest distance between the two signals in the third way.

Market × narrative (Flávio): Flávio's three-day decline coincides with the consolidation of the tariff hike/PIX as opposition's liability and with Vox confirming the loss of momentum, but the movement is also consistent with the technical digestion of the June 2 jump. AFOS does not assign a single cause: it notes that the premium opened by Tarcísio's endorsement was entirely returned in less than 72 hours.

In summary

Flávio fell for the third day (↓2.2pp to 28.20%) and Lula rose to 41.50%, with the gap at +13.30pp, the widest of the recent cycle and already above the level prior to the June 2 shift.
National survey released: Vox Brasil June 5 shows Lula 42.1% × Flávio 33.6% in the first round (+8.5pp) and 47.8% × 41.3% in the second round, with Lula tying Caiado and Zema, confirming the market's direction.
Third way divergence doubled sides: Caiado posts 6.9% in the survey against 2.35% in the market, while Renan posts 16.40% in the market against ~6% in surveys.

Sources consulted

Articles with direct links to the news

Poder360 · Lula has 47.8% and Flávio 41.3% in the second round, says Vox Brasil survey
Gazeta do Povo · Flávio asks Moraes to be declared biased to judge Master Case

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to the article)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 5, 21:09 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).